With just three weeks left in the Big Ten regular season, Michigan basketball has emerged as the team to beat. Sitting atop the standings with a one-loss record, the Wolverines have created a bit of breathing room, while Illinois, Nebraska, and Purdue are all knotted up behind them with three losses apiece. Michigan State trails slightly with four, still in the mix but needing help.
Let’s break down where things stand after a wild week of action-and what lies ahead as the race for the Big Ten title tightens.
Michigan (14-1, #1 NET)
Still holding strong at No. 1 in the NET rankings, Michigan took care of business last week, beating Northwestern by 12 and following that up with a win over UCLA. The Wolverines are firing on all cylinders right now-no injuries to their rotation, and grad transfer Yaxel Lendeborg is back to full strength, adding even more muscle to an already deep and disciplined squad.
This weekend, they face a major test on the road at Purdue (Feb 17), followed by a high-profile non-conference showdown with Duke in Washington D.C. on Feb 21. If Michigan can come out of that stretch unscathed, it’ll be hard to argue against them as a legitimate Final Four threat-and maybe more.
Illinois (10-1, #5 NET)
Illinois had a bit of a rollercoaster week. They were upset at home by Wisconsin in a tight two-point loss but bounced back in a big way by dismantling Indiana by 20. The return of senior guard Kylan Boswell was a big boost-he logged 32 minutes in the Indiana game and looked close to full form.
However, the injury bug hasn’t completely left Champaign. Andrej Stojakovic aggravated a high-ankle sprain against Michigan State and is now sidelined indefinitely. That’s a blow to Illinois’ perimeter depth and could affect their spacing and scoring versatility moving forward.
The Illini now head west for a tough road swing-USC on Feb 18 and UCLA on Feb 21. Two wins out west would keep them firmly in the hunt for the Big Ten crown.
Purdue (8-3, #7 NET)
Purdue seems to have found its rhythm again. After a stretch of uneven play, the Boilermakers picked up two solid wins-an overtime thriller against Nebraska and a double-digit victory over Iowa.
That Nebraska game, though, wasn’t without controversy. With 4.1 seconds left in OT, Nebraska’s Jamarques Lawrence slipped on what may have been a spilled beverage near the sideline.
Nebraska Athletics looked into it, but the investigation was inconclusive.
Regardless, Purdue got the win and is looking more like the balanced, dangerous squad we expected. Braden Smith continues to be the engine, averaging nearly 34 minutes per game, while the scoring load is spread out nicely among Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Oscar Cluff-all averaging double digits.
They’ve got a chance to shake up the standings when they host Michigan on Feb 17, then travel to Iowa on Feb 20.
Nebraska (9-2, #11 NET)
Nebraska split their week-losing a heartbreaker to Purdue in OT and then bouncing back by routing Northwestern by 19. The Purdue loss stung, especially with the late-game slip, but the bigger issue may have been the 14 turnovers and a 54-37 rebounding deficit. Those are the kinds of numbers that lose games in March, and Nebraska knows it.
Still, they’re right in the thick of it. They’ll try to keep pace with a road game at Iowa on Feb 17, followed by a home matchup against Penn State on Feb 21. If they can clean up the turnovers and get more physical on the boards, this team has the tools to make a real push.
Michigan State (9-2, #15 NET)
It’s been a tough stretch for the Spartans. They were on the wrong end of Wisconsin’s second straight upset and are now dealing with the loss of Divine Ugochukwu, who’s out for the season following surgery. That’s a hit to their frontcourt depth and overall rotation.
Momentum, morale, and media noise aren’t in Michigan State’s favor right now-but Tom Izzo’s teams don’t go quietly. They’ll host UCLA on Feb 17 and then Ohio State on Feb 22. If they can regroup and protect home court, they’re still in position to make noise down the stretch.
Title Odds and Projections
Let’s take a quick look at where the numbers stand as of February 16:
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI):
- Michigan: 24.7
- Illinois: 21.4
- Purdue: 20.9
- Michigan State: 18.0
- Nebraska: 17.7
Bart Torvik’s Title Share Projections:
- Michigan: 90.6% chance to share the title, 68.1% to win it outright
- Illinois: 20.8% share, 4.1% outright
- Purdue: 12.1% share, 1.7% outright
- Nebraska: 9.3% share, 1.0% outright
- Michigan State: 0.3% share, 0.0% outright
FanDuel Odds to Win the Big Ten:
- Michigan: -330
- Illinois: +350
- Purdue: +1000
- Nebraska: +6000
- Michigan State: +25000
Final Stretch
Michigan’s in the driver’s seat, but the road ahead is anything but smooth. Purdue has a shot to shake things up this weekend, Illinois is still dangerous despite injuries, and Nebraska and Michigan State are both capable of playing spoiler-or sneaking into the mix if things break their way.
The Big Ten title race is heating up, and with just a few games left, every possession, every rebound, and every slip on the court could make the difference. Buckle up.