Way-Too-Early CFP Projections Have Michigan Crashing the Party-With Three Losses
Kyle Whittingham hasn’t coached a single down for Michigan yet, but he’s already shaking up the College Football Playoff picture. In CBS Sports’ early 2026 playoff projection, the longtime Utah head coach-now leading the Wolverines-has his new squad sneaking into the 12-team field… with a 9-3 record and no conference title.
Yep, you read that right. Michigan, with three Big Ten losses and no trip to the conference championship game, is still projected to make the cut.
Let’s break it down.
Michigan: The Last Team In
Brad Crawford’s way-too-early bracket has Michigan as the 12th and final team in the playoff field. That’s notable on its own, but what really turns heads is how they get there: a 9-3 overall record, 6-3 in conference play, with losses to Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State. That’s a résumé that, in previous years, would’ve sent a team to a decent bowl-not the CFP.
But the 12-team playoff changes the equation. And Crawford’s projection suggests Michigan could be the first three-loss, non-conference champion to crash the postseason party.
It’s uncharted territory for the Wolverines. And for Whittingham, it would mark his first-ever playoff appearance-something he never achieved at Utah despite building a powerhouse in Salt Lake City. Now, with Michigan’s resources behind him, the expectations are sky-high.
Who Else Is In?
Crawford’s bracket includes plenty of familiar faces and a few eyebrow-raisers. Here’s the full projected field:
- Miami Hurricanes
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Texas Longhorns
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Oregon Ducks
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- LSU Tigers
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Memphis Tigers
- Michigan Wolverines
Some of these picks feel like safe bets. Georgia, Oregon, and Ohio State have all made the first two iterations of the 12-team playoff and look poised to return.
Notre Dame and Texas barely missed out last year and appear to be on the upswing. Miami and Texas Tech are projected to win their respective conferences-the ACC and Big 12-which gets them automatic bids.
Memphis grabs the Group of Five spot, rounding out nine of the 12 teams.
That leaves three at-large selections: LSU, Texas A&M, and Michigan. All three are in that second tier of playoff contenders-teams with enough talent to make a run, but also enough volatility to fall short. In this version of the bracket, they’re in.
The Big Ten Puzzle
What really challenges conventional thinking is the Big Ten picture. Crawford has four teams from the conference making the field: Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State, and Michigan. That’s not unheard of in a 12-team setup, but it does require a very top-heavy league.
And here’s the twist: Indiana is projected as the Big Ten champion, earning the No. 4 seed. That means Michigan’s path to the playoff comes without a title game appearance and with three conference losses-including one to Indiana.
It’s a scenario that would require the Big Ten to be dominant nationally, with its top teams beating up on everyone else and earning enough respect from the committee to justify multiple bids.
Can Whittingham Deliver?
Michigan didn’t bring in Kyle Whittingham just to maintain the status quo-they hired him to elevate the program and get back to the playoff after a two-year absence. He’s proven he can build and sustain success, but he’s never had the kind of resources he now has in Ann Arbor.
The early projections suggest he might already be maximizing them.
Still, there’s competition. USC looms as a major threat in the Big Ten, yet they’re notably absent from Crawford’s bracket.
If the Trojans get rolling, they could easily swipe that fourth Big Ten spot. But for now, Michigan holds it-at least in this early look.
Final Thoughts
Crawford’s projection isn’t gospel, but it’s a fascinating glimpse into how the expanded playoff field could open doors for teams that don’t check every traditional box. Michigan making it in with three losses and no conference title would’ve been unthinkable just a few years ago.
Now? It’s very much in play.
And if Whittingham can pull that off in Year One, it won’t just be a statement for Michigan-it’ll be a warning shot to the rest of college football: the Wolverines are back, and they’re not waiting around to prove it.