Bill Connelly’s 2026 preseason numbers don’t leave much room for Michigan to dream big in the Big Ten race.
In his latest projection, Connelly sees the Wolverines as a solid team facing a punishing path, not a true favorite to crash the conference title picture. Michigan lands at No. 20 nationally in returning production, which is still enough to put it among the top-20 teams in the country.
The Big Ten, though, is loaded with continuity. Eight league teams are in that top-20 group, with Maryland (2), Nebraska (3), Minnesota (8), UCLA (10), Oregon (12), USC (14) and Washington (16) all ranked ahead of Michigan.
The Wolverines do have one notable edge there: only UCLA brings back more offensive production in the conference. On defense, Michigan sits squarely in the middle.
When Connelly moves from continuity to full-team projections, the picture gets even more defined. He has Ohio State as the best team in the country, Oregon at No. 2 and Indiana at No. 5, forming a clear top tier in the Big Ten.
Michigan checks in at No. 14 overall, grouped with the next wave of league contenders rather than the elite. USC is right ahead at No. 13, followed by Penn State at 17, Washington at 21 and Iowa at 22.
If Michigan ends up fifth in the conference, that would be a tough sell for a fan base expecting more.
The unit-by-unit outlook is mixed. Offensively, Connelly places Michigan 20th nationally, which works out to sixth in the Big Ten.
Defensively, the Wolverines look stronger, coming in 13th in the country and trailing only Ohio State (1), Oregon (3) and Indiana (6) among Big Ten teams. Special teams, however, is where the projection really stings: Michigan is pegged as the second-worst unit in the conference and 113th nationally.
The schedule only makes the climb steeper. Connelly says Michigan has one of the five toughest slates in the country, and his record projection reflects that.
He has the Wolverines winning five conference games, which points to a 5-4 Big Ten mark, and gives them just a 1.1 percent chance to reach 11 wins. His final conference order puts Michigan sixth, behind Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Penn State and Iowa.
That’s the case against Michigan in a nutshell: good enough to be above average, but burdened by a brutal schedule and not quite built like a title favorite.
Still, there’s room to push back. The offense should make a major jump, the defense remains stocked with talent, and special teams may not be nearly as bleak as Connelly’s model suggests.
Kerry Coombs’ group is hard to picture finishing outside the top 100 nationally. The schedule is still a monster, but this roster should handle adversity better than last year’s team did.
That’s why the Wolverines feel like a fringe Big Ten contender rather than a true long shot. They shouldn’t be favored over Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana before the season starts, but once the games begin, the gap can shrink fast. Michigan might also be better than some of the teams Connelly slots ahead of it, especially USC.
So the question is simple: are the Wolverines good enough to make this a real conference race, or are they just another solid team stuck in a brutal Big Ten gauntlet?
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