Michigan’s trip into this rivalry game with Michigan State comes with a few clear themes: Tommy Carr is settled in at quarterback, the Wolverines are still searching for answers on the ground, and the Spartans have been stuck in neutral on offense for most of the season.
That combination makes this week’s over/under board pretty interesting. Michigan is coming off a 28-21 win over Rutgers, and with Kyle Whittingham having made it clear that Carr will stay under center, the focus shifts to how much the Wolverines can get done through the air and whether their defense can keep Michigan State bottled up.
Carr’s passing number sits at 224.5, and the lean is under. He just turned in his best outing as Michigan’s starter, and Michigan State’s pass defense is respectable at No. 50 nationally.
Still, 225 yards feels like a tall ask when Michigan wants to lean on the run, especially in a rivalry game. Another efficient day through the air is on the table, but the projection here stays just below the number.
The rushing market is where Michigan’s uncertainty really shows up. Jordan Marshall’s line is 74.5 yards, and that also gets the under.
Whittingham has said Marshall is healthy, but the production still hasn’t come together. Michigan State is only No. 86 against the run, so the matchup is there, but Marshall hasn’t been consistent enough to trust for a breakout.
Freshman Savion Hiter handled the heavier load last week, and that looks like the direction again.
Hiter’s rushing attempts line is 11.5, and that one points over. With Marshall still searching for rhythm, Hiter has already carved out more work, and his explosiveness gives Michigan a different kind of threat in the backfield. Against a vulnerable Spartans run defense, double-digit carries look very reachable, especially if Michigan gets out in front early.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s defense has a chance to make life miserable for Michigan State. The Spartans rank No. 117 in passing offense and have given up 24 sacks this season, which works out to three per game.
Michigan’s sack total is set at 3.5, and the pick is over. Jay Hill’s defense should have plenty of chances to get after the quarterback, and four sacks would not be a surprise.
The clearest under on the board is Michigan State’s team total of 13.5 points. The Spartans are No. 122 in rushing offense and No. 117 in passing offense, and that’s a rough setup against a Michigan defense that ranks No. 3 in total defense. Unless turnovers or explosive plays change the script, keeping Michigan State under 14 points looks like the safest call of the bunch.
In Other News...
Michigan Coach Just Made Bryce Underwood's Situation Even More Concerning
Tommy Carr is set to make his third straight start at quarterback for Michigan after Bryce Underwood was benched following a recent game filled with interceptions, a turn that has pushed the Wolverines into a more unsettled stretch under center. Underwood, still serving as a team captain, has spent the last few weeks backing up Carr from the sideline while dealing with a season marked by shaky passing accuracy and too many mistakes.
Quarterbacks coach Koy Detmer has spoken highly of Underwoods leadership and the way he has handled the demotion, but his comments also added another layer to the concern around the situation. Detmer said he wishes he had done a better job preparing Underwood for the season, a remark that underscores just how much Michigan is still trying to sort out at the position even as Carr takes another turn leading the offense. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan's O-Line Problem Is Becoming A Real Concern For Bryce Underwood
Michigans offensive line has turned into one of the more persistent issues of the season, and the effects have shown up everywhere from the trenches to the scoreboard. Injuries and constant lineup shuffling have left the unit searching for stability, with junior Jake Guarnera the only lineman to start all eight games. For a team trying to establish itself on the ground, that kind of turnover has made it hard to build any rhythm.
The run game has taken the brunt of it, with Michigan sitting 97th in rushing offense and too often looking out of sync when it tries to lean on the line. Coach Kyle Whittingham and offensive line coach Jim Harding have both acknowledged the problem and are pushing to make the group more physical and efficient, but the bigger question is how quickly that can happen before the pressure starts to mount on Bryce Underwood and the offense around him. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan Gets A Huge Boost For Its UConn Rematch Test
Michigans next big nonconference test comes with a familiar twist, as the Wolverines head to Bostons TD Garden for a national championship rematch with UConn. This time, though, they are expected to have Moustapha Thiam available after he missed the season opener because of illness, giving Michigan a major boost in the middle as it prepares for one of its toughest early-season challenges.
Thiams presence matters because of what he brings on both ends of the floor, from shot-blocking to the kind of offensive skill that can change how a game is played around the rim. Michigan should be close to full strength for the matchup, with the only notable absence being former coach Dusty May, now in the NBA, leaving the Wolverines to handle this one with a different sideline voice and a deeper frontcourt than they had a week ago. [Read more 🡒]