With the Citrus Bowl just around the corner, the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines are gearing up to face the No.
13 Texas Longhorns in a matchup that’s suddenly loaded with more questions than answers-at least on the Michigan side. While there's always optimism heading into a bowl game, there are some very real reasons to believe Texas holds the upper hand in this one.
Let’s break down five key factors that could tilt this game in the Longhorns’ favor.
1. Off-the-Field Turmoil Could Spill Onto the Field
Michigan’s month leading up to the Citrus Bowl has been anything but smooth. Since falling to Ohio State, the program has been in a state of flux.
The firing of Sherrone Moore set off a chain reaction that’s exposed deeper dysfunction within the program. Questions about leadership, the future of the coaching staff, and the direction of the team have dominated headlines-and locker room conversations.
That kind of noise doesn’t just stay in press conferences. It seeps into preparation, focus, and team morale.
And with a young core expected to shoulder the load, the timing couldn’t be worse. Bowl games are often won by the team that wants to be there more.
Right now, it’s fair to wonder just how locked in Michigan really is.
2. Distractions Are Mounting-and So Is the Lack of Focus
Bowl season is always a balancing act between finishing strong and looking ahead. But for Michigan, that balance might already be out of whack.
Assistant coaches are exploring new opportunities-Chip Lindsey has already left for Missouri-and players are eyeing the transfer portal. That’s not unusual in today’s college football landscape, but it does raise a red flag when it becomes the dominant storyline heading into a bowl game.
This isn’t a College Football Playoff semifinal. It’s not a rivalry game.
It’s a high-profile bowl, sure-but for a team in transition, it might feel more like a footnote than a finale. And without a strong cultural backbone or a clear leader at the helm, Michigan could be walking into this game without the competitive edge needed to take down a Texas team that’s still very much intact.
3. Key Opt-Outs Leave Major Holes
The Wolverines won’t be at full strength, and that’s putting it mildly. Three of their most impactful players-Derrick Moore, Jaishawn Barham, and Giovanni El-Hadi-have already opted out.
All seniors. All leaders.
All gone.
These aren’t just names on a depth chart. They’re foundational pieces on both sides of the ball.
Losing that kind of experience and production, especially in the trenches, is a big deal. And it opens the door for Texas to control the line of scrimmage-something they did effectively the last time these two programs met back in 2024.
If more players follow suit and opt out or transfer before kickoff, Michigan could be looking at a patchwork lineup against a Texas team that, despite some absences of its own, still has plenty of firepower.
4. Arch Manning Is Peaking at the Right Time
Early in the season, Arch Manning looked like a quarterback still finding his footing. He threw seven interceptions and struggled under pressure. But that version of Manning hasn’t been seen in a while.
In the final seven games of the season, he flipped the script-posting 17 total touchdowns to just two interceptions and completing over 62% of his passes. And he did it against legitimate defenses, including Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas A&M.
Now, he’s facing a Michigan defense without its top two pass rushers. That’s a problem.
Manning has shown he can pick apart defenses when given time, and he’s playing with a confidence that wasn’t there in September. If he gets rolling early, this could become his statement game-a launching pad into next season.
5. Coaching Edge Goes to Texas-and It’s Not Close
Steve Sarkisian is operating at the top of his game. With 148 games of head coaching experience and back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances, he’s turned Texas into a national contender again. Even with the Longhorns expected to be down 20 scholarship players, Sark has built a program that’s resilient, well-coached, and still loaded with talent.
On the other sideline, Michigan’s interim head coach Biff Poggi is stepping into a tough spot. He’s been here before-filling in during Moore’s suspension earlier this year-but this is a different animal. Sarkisian is the most accomplished coach Poggi has gone up against, and this Texas roster is the deepest he’s faced.
Coaching matters in bowl games, especially when one team is navigating uncertainty and the other has a clear identity and direction. Right now, Texas has the edge in preparation, stability, and leadership-and that could show up in every phase of the game.
Bottom Line: Michigan still has talent. There’s no question about that.
But between the coaching upheaval, the player departures, and the overall lack of cohesion, this feels like a team in transition. Texas, on the other hand, is stable, motivated, and led by a quarterback who’s catching fire at just the right time.
If Michigan doesn’t find a way to rally and refocus fast, Texas could walk away from the Citrus Bowl with a statement win-and leave the Wolverines with more questions than answers heading into 2026.