Michigan Aims to Snap Skid Against Rival Spartans - But Turnovers Loom Large
There’s no sugarcoating it - Michigan basketball has had a hard time cracking the Michigan State code lately. Four straight losses to the Spartans, all by double digits, have left a bitter taste in Ann Arbor. But Friday night in East Lansing offers a fresh opportunity for the Wolverines to flip the script - and they’re heading into the rivalry matchup with plenty of momentum and a top-three national ranking to back it up.
Coming off a gutsy 75-72 win over Nebraska, the Wolverines are now 19-1 overall and 9-1 in Big Ten play. That puts them in elite company atop the conference standings, tied with Michigan State, Nebraska, and Illinois - all with just one league loss. And with five games left on the schedule against currently ranked opponents - including two matchups with the Spartans - Michigan’s path to a Big Ten title is anything but easy.
But here’s the thing: despite the impressive record, the Wolverines have a glaring issue that could be their undoing against a team like Michigan State - turnovers.
Turnovers: Michigan’s Achilles Heel
In Tuesday’s win over Nebraska, Michigan coughed up the ball 19 times. That’s not a typo.
Eleven of those came in the second half alone, and when you crunch the numbers, that’s a turnover on nearly 23% of their possessions. That’s not just sloppy - it’s dangerous, especially against a team that thrives in transition.
Over the last five games, Michigan’s turnover rate has hovered around 16.9%, which isn’t catastrophic, but it’s far from clean. And while Michigan State isn’t exactly a turnover-forcing machine - they average just 11 takeaways per game, ranking outside the top 200 nationally - they make the most of the ones they do get.
The Spartans are averaging 17.1 fast-break points per game, a mark that puts them in the 98th percentile nationally, per CBBanalytics.com. That’s elite territory. So even if they’re not swarming you with pressure, they’re lethal when they get out and run - and turnovers are their fuel.
Clean Execution is the Key
For Michigan, the game plan is simple in theory but tough in execution: take care of the ball. The Wolverines are averaging 12.8 turnovers per game this season, and that number has consistently put them behind the eight ball, even in wins. Against a disciplined and opportunistic team like Michigan State, those mistakes could quickly snowball.
It’s not just about protecting possessions - it’s about preventing runouts. Missed shots and turnovers are transition triggers, and with the Spartans’ ability to push the pace and finish in the open court, Michigan can’t afford to feed that fire.
The Rivalry Factor
Records and rankings matter, but this is Michigan-Michigan State. The rivalry has a way of leveling the playing field, and the recent history - four straight double-digit losses - is a reminder that the Spartans know how to rise to the occasion.
Dusty May’s squad may have the edge on paper, but they’ll need to match Michigan State’s intensity and play a cleaner game to get it done in East Lansing. If the Wolverines can limit their turnovers and control the tempo, they’ve got the talent to end the streak and take a major step toward a Big Ten crown.
But if the same issues that plagued them against Nebraska show up again, it could be another long night against their in-state nemesis.