Week 5 in the Big Ten brings a little of everything: a ranked showdown in Iowa City, a pair of big-number road favorites, and a handful of totals that look much cleaner than the sides. After a 6-3 Week 4, the season mark now sits at 31-27-1, and this slate offers plenty of chances to keep rolling.
The headliner is Ohio State’s trip to Iowa, but the week also opens with Penn State visiting Northwestern on Friday night in the Wildcats’ new stadium. Northwestern’s near-upset of Indiana and Penn State’s stunning white-out loss to Wisconsin sent this number tumbling from 7 to 2.5.
That kind of move would normally make Penn State look like a gift, but Northwestern’s 3-0 ATS start makes it hard to back the Nittany Lions here. The better angle is the over, since Northwestern has gone over in every game this season.
Another line that has moved sharply is Michigan’s trip to Minnesota. The spread has dropped from 8.5 to 5.5 after Michigan’s shocking home loss, but the total is what stands out.
Per The Action Network, 76 percent of bets are on the over, yet the number has gone from 44.5 to 43.5. That suggests heavier money on the under, and with Michigan’s defense still looking strong, the under makes sense.
The same logic points to another low-scoring game in Madison. Michigan State heads to Wisconsin, where the Badgers are laying 10 after their performance against Penn State.
That number is a little surprising, but both teams have leaned under so far: Michigan State is 1-3 to the under, Wisconsin 3-1 to the over, and both are 2-2 against the spread. With the Spartans 0-1 against the total on the road and Wisconsin 1-1 at home and as a favorite, the under is the play.
Iowa’s emotional win last week sets up what feels like the easiest side of the week. Ohio State goes into Iowa City as a 14.5-point favorite, and if the up-down theory matters, the Hawkeyes are due for a drop after a big emotional high. The line spent most of the week at 13.5, which was easier to swallow, but the pick remains Ohio State -14.5.
Nebraska also comes in as a double-digit favorite, hosting Maryland as a 14.5-point favorite. Even though most of the bets are on Maryland, the line has moved from 11.5 to 14.5, which points to respected money backing Matt Rhule’s team. Nebraska is also 3-1 ATS, making the Cornhuskers the straightforward choice.
The total in Purdue-Illinois is one of the more tempting numbers on the board. Purdue has been awful, which makes Illinois laying only 10 a little surprising, but the spread hasn’t moved and the betting split is close to even.
That pushes the focus to the over, and both teams are a perfect 4-0 to the over this season. Sixty-one and a half is high, but until that trend breaks, it’s hard to argue with it.
Washington and USC bring another total into focus. Both teams have been terrible against the spread - Washington is 0-4 ATS and USC is 1-4 - so the side is off the board.
The over, though, has been a habit: Washington has hit it in each of its last two, USC in three straight, and USC is 4-1 to the over overall while Washington sits at 2-2. At 58.5, the over is the pick.
The night ends with Indiana visiting Rutgers, where the Hoosiers are favored by 23.5. Indiana is undefeated, but the record comes with a warning label because the schedule hasn’t offered much resistance. Rutgers is 2-2 ATS and 3-1 to the over, which isn’t the strongest trend in the world, but it’s enough to make the Scarlet Knights worth a look against a huge number.
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