Michigan’s 2026 schedule leaves very little room to breathe, especially with two new coordinators trying to get everyone on the same page right away. The Wolverines open with a home game against Oklahoma hanging over the month, then run straight into the top three teams in the conference. If Michigan is going to make a real push, the margin for error is tiny.
The first night under the lights brings Western Michigan to Ann Arbor, and all eyes will be on Bryce Underwood as he works with Jason Beck and QB coach Koy Detmer Jr. WMU brings back Broc Lowry at quarterback, so there’s at least a little challenge there for the new-look Michigan defense.
Still, that edge should fade quickly. Michigan is expected to be stout on defense, and the offense should have room to do plenty of damage.
Underwood should look the part in the opener.
Week 2 is a much different animal. Oklahoma comes to the Big House after Michigan went to Norman last season and left empty-handed, and the Wolverines are trying to answer that loss.
The Sooners return plenty of talent, including QB John Mateer, who made Michigan look silly last year, and LB Cole Sullivan is also back in Ann Arbor, only now he’s on the other side. This one comes down to how far Underwood has come.
Oklahoma’s defense is expected to be strong, and if Underwood slips back into old habits, Michigan won’t win. Right now, this shapes up as a defensive fight that ends with the Wolverines falling short again.
After that, Michigan gets a softer landing with UTEP. The Wolverines should want to throw it around and get Underwood rolling again, and this is the easiest game on the slate. It’s the kind of matchup where Michigan can open things up, and Underwood is projected to have a huge day while the defense pushes for a shutout.
Big Ten play starts with Iowa, and the Hawkeyes might come in undefeated. But that record can be deceiving.
Iowa is expected to start a very inexperienced quarterback and lean on defense and the run game like it usually does. Michigan’s run defense should be strong enough to handle that, and the Wolverines have too many playmakers on offense.
Iowa can hang around for a while, but too many three-and-outs eventually let Michigan pull away late.
Then comes the first road test, and it’s a tricky one at Minnesota. The Gophers return Drake Lindsey, who set freshman records last season, along with star running back Darius Taylor.
PJ Fleck will have them ready, but Lindsey struggled against the better teams he faced a year ago. Michigan should ride into Minneapolis feeling good after a couple of dominant wins, and the defense is expected to answer the call.
After a bye, Penn State comes to Ann Arbor with a very different feel under Matt Campbell, as the James Franklin era is over. The Nittany Lions have a soft enough schedule to make noise, but they still have to win at Michigan to really get rolling.
The Wolverines already have one home loss in this projection, and another would be a problem if they’re trying to stay in the CFP race. This one is expected to be close, but Bryce Underwood outduels Rocco Becht, and Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter both deliver big days in a needed Michigan win.
Indiana follows, and the reigning national champions bring a dangerous passing attack with Josh Hoover at the center of it. Michigan hasn’t seen Curt Cignetti since the 2024 season, when the Wolverines had every chance to win.
By now, Underwood is clicking and Michigan’s defense is playing well, with Jyaire Hill, Zeke Berry, and Smith Snowden ready for the challenge. Indiana will make plays, but Michigan is projected to pull the upset and stay alive in the Big Ten picture.
Rutgers comes next, and that’s the kind of game Michigan should handle if it’s rolling. The Scarlet Knights can be tricky, but the Wolverines are simply too loaded, barring injuries. If Underwood is in rhythm, this one could get out of hand quickly, the way Michigan’s 2022 trip to Piscataway did.
Michigan State comes to Ann Arbor after that, and rivalry games don’t care about the schedule around them. Oregon is waiting the following week, but there’s no room for a letdown here.
It’s also a matchup of first-year head coaches, and Pat Fitzgerald knows Michigan well from his Northwestern days. He should get the Spartans trending upward, but not enough to matter in 2026.
Michigan has a real chance to blow this game open, though it still figures to be tougher than the talent gap suggests.
Then comes the toughest assignment on the slate: Oregon in Eugene. That road trip is brutal on its own, and it gets even harder against one of the most talented teams in college football. Dante Moore has a real Heisman case, and unless Michigan gets a lot of help, the Wolverines aren’t expected to win this one.
After that loss, Michigan returns home for its final game in Ann Arbor against UCLA. It’s a classic trap spot with Ohio State looming, but the Wolverines can’t afford to slip again with two losses already on the board. UCLA is expected to make things interesting early before a fiery halftime speech from Kyle Whittingham wakes Michigan up in the second half.
That sets up the regular-season finale at Ohio State with Michigan sitting at 9-2. Another win would put the Wolverines in strong position for the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football Playoff, while another loss would leave them on the outside looking in.
Michigan had won four straight in the series before Ohio State took the last one, and the Buckeyes’ new-look defense is expected to be playing well by then. In a tight finish, Michigan drops its third game of the season.
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