Last week in this space was a clean start before the day games got rolling, then the night slate turned messy. The noon window treated us well, and even with misses on Washington vs.
Purdue on Friday and both late games Saturday, the week still came home at 4-3 thanks to Ohio State and Michigan State covering and Michigan vs. Penn State landing on the expected under.
That pushed the season mark to 44-37-1.
Week 8 does not exactly overflow with marquee matchups, which is why Big Noon Kickoff is headed to Ann Arbor for Indiana at Michigan. The only other game that really had a case was USC at Wisconsin. Even so, there are still some angles worth attacking.
All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
Indiana (-7) at Michigan, O/U 41.5, Noon ET
If you’re looking for the week’s headline game, this is it - and it should be a slog. Indiana’s Josh Hoover did not look sharp against Ohio State last week and was clearly dealing with a nagging injury.
Michigan, meanwhile, had to make the move to Tommy Carr after benching Bryce Underwood. Carr responded by leading the Wolverines to 21 second-half points, but Indiana’s defense having a full week to prepare for him is a much tougher test.
Michigan is also just 1-5 against the total, while Indiana sits at 3-4. The call here is to stay away from points and lean low.
The pick: Under 41.5
Rutgers at Northwestern (-16.5), O/U 58.5, Noon ET
Vegas doesn’t seem especially interested in this one, with the spread holding steady and The Action Network showing 50 percent of bets on each side. The trend, though, points in one direction.
Rutgers has gone over in five of six games this season, while Northwestern is 4-1-1 to the over and has not gone under at home. Neither team is doing much on defense.
The pick: Over 58.5
Oregon (-9.5) at Illinois, O/U 50.5, 3 p.m. ET
This is the one that has caught Vegas’ attention. Oregon opened as a 13.5-point favorite, got bet down to 8.5, and eventually settled at 9.5.
That kind of move says plenty about how the market views Illinois in this spot. The Ducks are just 1-4 ATS as favorites, while Illinois is 1-0 ATS as an underdog.
The pick: Illinois +9.5
Michigan State at UCLA (-14), O/U 44.5, 3:30 p.m. ET
UCLA is starting to get some respect from the books, and maybe it should. The Bruins are 6-0 ATS this season, and Michigan State brings a rough resume into this one - the worst Big Ten record in the last four seasons in conference history, with no real sign of a turnaround. At this number, it’s hard to talk yourself into the Spartans.
The pick: UCLA -14
Iowa (-6.5) at Minnesota, O/U 40.5, 3:30 p.m. ET
This line has moved a long way from where it started. After Minnesota’s win over Michigan in Minneapolis two weeks ago, Iowa was only a 2-point favorite in the future market for this matchup. Then the Golden Gophers followed with a disastrous performance against Purdue, and the spread ballooned all the way to 7.5 before settling at 6.5.
Even with that swing, Minnesota has some things going for it. P.J.
Fleck’s team is 4-2 ATS and has covered in three of its last four. The Gophers also have an elite pass defense, while Iowa has had trouble throwing the ball consistently.
The pick: Minnesota +6.5
USC (-3) at Wisconsin, O/U 49.5, 7:30 p.m. ET
Both teams have been pretty ordinary against the spread and the total, so this one really comes down to a bigger question: how real is Wisconsin? The Badgers have taken care of the teams they were supposed to beat, including Penn State, but they’ve dropped the only two games that came against quality opposition, Notre Dame and UCLA.
Based on the eye test, Wisconsin still isn’t convincing. That makes this a spot where USC can separate.
In Other News...
Michigan Suddenly Has New Injury Questions Ahead Of Indiana
Michigan is heading into its Week 8 matchup with Indiana carrying a few more health questions than it would like this late in the week. Right tackle Andrew Sprague has already been sidelined since Week 3, and the latest injury report also includes Brady Norton and Blake Frazier as questionable, adding more uncertainty to a position group that has already been juggling availability.
The other new names are Enow Etta and Rod Moore, though Moores issue is not expected to be serious. Even so, the timing is less than ideal for a Michigan team trying to get settled before facing an Indiana squad that enters the week without anyone on its own injury report. For the Wolverines, the bigger concern now is not just who is available, but how many moving parts they can afford to manage. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan's Defensive Front Has A Huge Chance To Flip Indiana Game
Larry Black knows this matchup from both sides of the line. The Michigan defensive tackles coach spent part of his playing career at Indiana, and he still remembers the 2010 meeting when he lined up against his brother Jibreel Black, who was then at Michigan. Now hes helping shape a Wolverines front that could be central to how this one plays out, especially with both teams bringing enough defensive punch to make every possession feel important.
Turnovers may be the biggest swing factor, and Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham has stressed the margin for error there. Black, for his part, sounds eager for the chance to see his group make an imprint against his old program, with the interior defense in position to affect the game in a way that goes beyond the usual box score. For Michigan, the path to controlling Indiana may start with the line of scrimmage, where Blacks background gives this game a little extra edge. [Read more 🡒]
Urban Meyer Sees One Important Thing In Michigan's QB Switch
Michigans quarterback switch at halftime against Penn State was less about making a statement than finding a way to get the offense moving. Bryce Underwood gave way to Tommy Carr after the Wolverines struggled to establish rhythm, and the change gave the staff a fresh look without forcing a wholesale rework of what they wanted to run.
Urban Meyer pointed to one important part of the move: Carrs skill set is close enough to Underwoods that Michigan could keep leaning on the same run-pass menu. That showed up in the second half, when Carr was able to operate the offense on RPOs and quarterback counters and finish a speed option play in the end zone, the kind of continuity coaches hope for when they turn to a backup in the middle of a game. [Read more 🡒]