With four weeks left in the Big Ten men’s basketball regular season, the race for the conference crown is heating up-and fast. Michigan and Illinois have muscled their way into a tie at the top, while Michigan State and Nebraska are right behind them, deadlocked in third. Purdue, once a frontrunner, now finds itself in fifth, trying to claw its way back into contention.
Let’s break down where things stand, what’s changed in the past week, and what lies ahead for these five contenders.
What’s Changed Since January 25
Michigan (10-1, NET #3)
The Wolverines are rolling.
They pulled out a gritty three-point win over Nebraska and followed that up by handling in-state rival Michigan State by 11. Both were top-10 matchups, and Michigan showed why it’s become one of the most complete teams in the country.
No major injuries are holding them back either-though grad forward Yaxel Lendeborg is still working through a calf issue that’s dulled his explosiveness. Even so, Michigan looks like a team built for March.
Illinois (10-1, NET #6)
Illinois is thriving, especially on the road.
A nine-point win over Nebraska showcased their size and physicality-two things that continue to separate them from much of the conference. Their offensive rebounding and rim protection are elite, and they’ve ridden that formula to the top of the standings.
The one hiccup? Senior guard Kylan Boswell, their second-leading scorer and a key perimeter presence, will miss a couple of weeks.
That’s a big blow, but this team has depth.
Michigan State (9-2, NET #11)
The Spartans split their last two, beating Rutgers by nine but falling to Michigan by double digits.
That loss stung-not just because it was a rivalry game, but because it exposed some of the same issues that have plagued Tom Izzo’s team all season. They’re still dead last in the Big Ten in turnovers, and their offense ranks just 136th nationally in points per game.
The defense, though? Still elite.
That’s what’s keeping them in the title hunt.
Nebraska (9-2, NET #10)
The Huskers hit a wall, dropping back-to-back games to Michigan and Illinois.
That’s a tough stretch, but there’s reason for optimism. Senior forward Rienk Mast and freshman Braden Frager are back from injury, giving Nebraska a much-needed boost as they try to stay in the mix.
This is still a dangerous team-especially when they’re at full strength.
Purdue (8-3, NET #8)
Purdue’s recent stretch has been a mixed bag.
They dropped a five-point game to Indiana but bounced back with a dominant 20-point win over Maryland. The senior trio of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn continues to lead the way, but the supporting cast hasn’t consistently delivered.
Oscar Cluff is the only other player averaging double figures, and Smith is playing through a left knee injury suffered against USC. Even at less than 100%, he’s still the engine that makes Purdue go.
What’s Next: Key Upcoming Matchups
Michigan
- Feb 5: vs.
Penn State (NET #131)
- Feb 8: at Ohio State (NET #40)
The Wolverines should be favored in both, but that road trip to Columbus could be tricky.
Illinois
- Feb 4: vs.
Northwestern (NET #70)
- Feb 7: at Michigan State
That Feb 7 showdown in East Lansing is massive. A win there would keep Illinois firmly in the title conversation.
Michigan State
- Feb 4: at Minnesota (NET #84)
- Feb 7: vs. Illinois
It’s a pivotal week for the Spartans. Two wins would reassert their place in the top tier.
Two losses? That could be the beginning of a slide.
Nebraska
- Feb 7: at Rutgers (NET #159)
- Feb 10: vs. Purdue
Rutgers is beatable, but that Purdue matchup looms large. Nebraska needs to hold serve at home.
Purdue
- Feb 7: vs.
Oregon (NET #115)
- Feb 10: at Nebraska
Purdue’s margin for error is razor-thin. They can’t afford another conference loss if they want to stay in the race.
The Numbers Behind the Race
Let’s take a look at what the predictive metrics and oddsmakers are saying as of early February.
ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index)
- Michigan: 23.5
- Illinois: 20.7
- Purdue: 20.7
- Michigan State: 18.9
- Nebraska: 17.8
Michigan still holds the top spot, but Illinois and Purdue are right there. The gap between the top five is narrowing.
Bart Torvik’s Projections
- Michigan: 59.5% chance to share the title, 35.6% to win it outright
- Illinois: 50.4% share, 27.2% outright
- Nebraska: 18.5% share, 5.2% outright
- Michigan State: 6.6% share, 1.7% outright
- Purdue: 0.1% share, 0.0% outright
Torvik’s model loves Michigan, and it’s easy to see why. But Illinois is still very much in the mix.
FanDuel Odds
- Michigan: -110
- Illinois: +105
- Nebraska: +1400
- Michigan State: +2700
- Purdue: +3500
Vegas sees this as a two-horse race, with Michigan and Illinois neck-and-neck. The rest?
Long shots-for now.
Final Word
There’s still a lot of basketball left to be played, but the Big Ten title race is starting to take shape. Michigan and Illinois look like the teams to beat, but with key matchups looming and injuries playing a role, the door is still open-if only slightly-for Michigan State, Nebraska, and even Purdue to make a late push.
Strap in. February in the Big Ten is always a grind, and this year’s sprint to the finish is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.