As we dive into the heart of February, Michigan's NCAA Tournament resume is shaping up to be a compelling narrative in college basketball. Earlier this month, we took a close look at their standing using the NET rankings and quadrant system, and the Wolverines were poised to make history with a record number of Quad 1 victories. Since then, the landscape has shifted dramatically around them.
For those needing a quick refresher, the NET rankings are determined by a team's performance across different quadrants. Here's where Michigan stands after their recent clash with Minnesota.
As of Wednesday morning, Michigan holds the top spot in the NET rankings, despite a head-to-head loss to Duke. While the selection committee might hesitate to rank Michigan above Duke due to that loss, KenPom metrics also give the Wolverines an edge over the Blue Devils at this moment.
Michigan, Duke, and Arizona are pulling away as the top three teams across nearly all metrics. Following them, the NET rankings diverge a bit, placing Illinois at No.
4, Gonzaga at No. 5, and Purdue at No. 6.
The top ten is rounded out by Florida, Iowa State, Houston, and UConn. Notably, other Big Ten teams like Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio State are also making their mark.
The Wolverines boast a 10-1 record in Quad 1 games. With Villanova climbing to No. 30 in the NET, Michigan's home victory over the Wildcats now counts as a Q1 win.
Their neutral site win over San Diego State, sitting in the mid-40s, also remains a Q1 win. None of their other Q1 games are in danger of dropping to Q2 status.
In the Q2 category, Michigan stands at 9-1. Opportunities for improvement exist, as wins over Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State, and UCLA could shift to Q1 if those teams move into the top 30.
Similarly, a road win against Northwestern could become a Q1 win with a slight climb in the rankings. The only potential slip is their tight win over Penn State, which is teetering on the edge of falling to Q3.
In Quads 3 and 4, Michigan remains undefeated with records of 4-0 and 2-0, respectively. While there are potential movements, it's unlikely to significantly impact their resume.
Wins over Rutgers and Middle Tennessee are at risk of dropping from Q3 to Q4, while a road win against Maryland could move up to Q2. Oakland is also close to moving up to Q3.
Looking ahead, Michigan's regular season concludes with three crucial Q1 matchups. They face Illinois and Iowa on the road before hosting Michigan State.
Each of these games is expected to remain in the Quad 1 category. With a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, the Wolverines could encounter up to three more Quad 1 opponents on neutral ground.
The takeaway here is clear: Michigan still has a lot at stake. Despite the setback against Duke, the possibility of securing the No. 1 overall seed remains alive, thanks to favorable advanced metrics. With a tougher schedule than Duke in the ACC, a strong finish could propel the Wolverines back into the spotlight.
As we noted earlier, the quadrant system is likely to favor Michigan when Selection Sunday rolls around. The journey is far from over, and the Wolverines are right in the mix of the NCAA tournament conversation.