The Michigan Wolverines are sitting at 19-1, fresh off a signature win over previously unbeaten Nebraska, the No. 5 team in the country. They're ranked No. 3 in the AP Poll, No. 2 in KenPom, and tied atop the Big Ten standings.
On paper, it’s hard to find much to complain about. But if you’ve been watching closely, you know this team hasn’t quite looked like its dominant self since that blowout win over USC back on January 2.
Let’s be clear: wins are wins. In a conference as physical and unpredictable as the Big Ten, there’s no such thing as an ugly victory. But for a team with national title hopes, Michigan’s recent performances have raised a few eyebrows - and maybe a few questions for head coach Dusty May.
So what’s going on?
Defensive Slippage
Let’s start on the defensive end, where Michigan still ranks No. 2 in the country on KenPom. That’s elite company. But even elite defenses can show cracks, and lately, the Wolverines have looked a bit more vulnerable.
Before their loss to Wisconsin, no opponent had shot better than 47.1% from two-point range against Michigan. Since then?
Four of their last six opponents have cleared that mark. The common thread: teams are dragging 7-foot-3 Aday Mara out of the paint by going five-out, forcing him to defend on the perimeter - not exactly his comfort zone.
That’s opened up driving lanes and softened Michigan’s interior defense.
Another issue? The Wolverines’ commitment to switching 1 through 4 on defense.
It’s a sound strategy in theory, but opponents have started exploiting it with constant screening action. Nebraska, in particular, ran screen after screen until Michigan missed a switch - and it happened more than once.
That kind of breakdown can be costly, especially in tight games against tournament-caliber teams.
Offensive Inconsistencies
On the offensive end, Michigan still boasts the No. 10 unit in the country per KenPom, and their ability to finish at the rim remains one of the best in college basketball. But the perimeter shooting? That’s cooled off - and then some.
Four of their worst three-point shooting games this season have come in January. Against Ohio State, they shot just 21.7% from deep.
Against Nebraska? 23.1%.
When the threes aren’t falling, it puts even more pressure on the Wolverines to dominate the paint - and that’s not always sustainable across 40 minutes.
Free throws have also become a bit of a sore spot. Aday Mara’s struggles at the line are well-documented, but lately, the rest of the team hasn’t been much better.
In the win over Ohio State, Michigan went 15-of-25 from the stripe. That includes a rare off night from Yaxel Lendeborg, who had been reliable in conference play but went just 3-for-7 against the Buckeyes.
So What’s Next?
None of this is cause for panic. Michigan is still 19-1.
They’re winning games. They’re defending at a high level.
They’re one of the most balanced teams in the country. But for a group with Final Four potential, there’s another gear they haven’t quite hit this month.
The questions now turn to Dusty May and his staff. Do they stick with the 1-4 switching scheme on defense, or tweak it to avoid mismatches and breakdowns?
Can they find ways to keep Mara closer to the rim, where he’s most effective? Offensively, how do they generate cleaner looks from three - and maybe more importantly, how do they get back to knocking them down?
And then there are the turnovers. They’ve been a bit too frequent lately, and that’s something that can derail a tournament run in a hurry if not cleaned up.
The good news? These are all fixable issues.
Michigan has the talent, the coaching, and the experience to make the necessary adjustments. The question isn’t whether they’re good - they’ve proven that.
The question is whether they can sharpen the edges and get back to playing the kind of basketball that had people talking national championship just a few weeks ago.
The Wolverines are winning - but they know they can be better. And come March, that could make all the difference.