Michigan's Dream Season Rolls On - But March Will Demand More
At 22-1, Michigan is off to the best start in program history. Sunday’s win over Ohio State only added to the momentum, and with seven games left in the regular season, the Wolverines are firmly in the national title conversation. But as dominant as they’ve looked, the road ahead is anything but smooth - four of their final seven games are on the road, and four are against top-15 opponents.
This is the stretch where great teams are tested. It’s where contenders either sharpen their edge for March or start to show cracks that can’t be patched in time. Michigan has earned its spot near the top of the rankings, but if they're going to make a deep NCAA Tournament run, there are a few areas they’ll need to tighten up - and fast.
1. Turnovers: The Cost of Playing Fast
Michigan plays with pace, and it’s a big reason they’re so dangerous. They average 91.0 points per game - not just tops in the Big Ten, but comfortably ahead of second-place Illinois (84.5). That kind of scoring margin speaks to the firepower this team brings every night.
But with that speed comes risk. The Wolverines are giving the ball away 12.3 times per game, which ranks among the worst in the conference. For a team with national championship aspirations, that’s a red flag.
When Michigan protects the ball, they’re nearly impossible to beat. Their 59% effective field goal percentage ranks seventh nationally - a sign they’re not just scoring, but doing it efficiently.
They don’t need more possessions; they need better ones. Every turnover is a missed opportunity to capitalize on one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
If they can clean that up, especially against elite defenses, they’ll be in a much better position to control tight games - the kind they’re likely to face in March.
2. Free Throws: A Hidden Vulnerability
Getting to the line isn’t a problem for Michigan - they’re among the top 50 teams in the country in free throw attempts (24.4 per game). But converting those chances? That’s another story.
Their season average sits at 73.7%, which ranks outside the top 100 nationally. In Big Ten play, that number improves to 76.8%, but it’s still not where it needs to be for a team with championship ambitions.
The biggest concern here is Aday Mara. He’s taken nearly as many free throws as team leader Yaxel Lendeborg, but he’s hitting just 49% of them.
That’s the kind of stat that becomes a liability in crunch time. If opponents start playing the foul game late, Mara could find himself on the bench - and that’s a problem, because his size and skill set create matchup issues Michigan needs to exploit.
But Mara’s not alone. Point guards Elliot Cadeau (69%) and L.J.
Cason (65.7%) are also struggling at the stripe. Between the three of them, they’ve attempted 189 of Michigan’s 562 free throws - and all three are shooting below 75%.
That’s a lot of missed points from players who are going to have the ball in their hands late in games. In March, those misses can be the difference between advancing and going home.
3. Clutch Offense: Who’s Taking the Big Shot?
Here’s the thing about Michigan’s season so far - they haven’t had to win many close games. That’s a testament to how dominant they’ve been. But it also means we haven’t seen this group tested in high-pressure, late-game situations.
Only five of their games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. In those games, the offense hasn’t looked nearly as sharp in the final five minutes.
Take their recent win over Nebraska. Michigan scored just eight points in the final five minutes, missed two free throws, and had a costly turnover that nearly let the Cornhuskers tie it at the buzzer.
Against Wisconsin - their lone loss of the season - Michigan led 84-83 with four minutes to go. From there, the offense sputtered: a missed three, a turnover, another missed three, and just one made field goal in the final stretch.
They scored only two points in the final 3:30 and lost 88-86.
Roddy Gayle Jr. took three of the team’s last five shots, including the final one - a missed layup. Gayle has been a key piece all year, but in those moments, Michigan needs a clearer pecking order. Who’s the go-to guy when the game’s on the line?
There have been other warning signs, too. Penn State and TCU both clawed back late after Michigan held multi-possession leads. In March, when almost every game comes down to the final few possessions, that kind of inconsistency can be fatal.
And the schedule’s not easing up. Michigan still has to face Duke, Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State before postseason play begins. All four are capable of pushing games into the final minutes, and all four are the kind of opponents Michigan will see again in the NCAA Tournament.
The Bottom Line
This Michigan team is special - no doubt about it. They’ve got the scoring, the depth, the length, and the coaching to make a serious run at a national title.
But March is a different beast. It’s not just about talent; it’s about execution under pressure.
Turnovers, free throws, and late-game offense are the three areas where the Wolverines have shown vulnerability. They don’t need to be perfect, but they do need to be better. Because when the lights get brightest and the margin for error disappears, those little things become everything.
The good news? There’s still time.
The bad news? Not much.