Michigan Basketball Surging Toward March: A No. 1 Seed in Sight as Dusty May’s Squad Keeps Rolling
With less than a month to go before Selection Sunday, Michigan basketball is making one thing clear: this team isn’t just good - it’s built for March.
At 24-1 overall and 14-1 in the Big Ten, the Wolverines are the last power-conference team in the country with only one loss. Arizona’s recent slip-up opened the door, and Michigan has stormed right through it.
Now riding a 10-game win streak, they’re poised to take over the top spot in the national rankings when the new polls drop Monday afternoon. If that holds, we’re likely looking at your No. 1 overall seed heading into the NCAA Tournament.
A Resume That Speaks for Itself
The numbers back it up. Michigan sits at No. 1 in both the NET and KenPom rankings - the two most influential metrics when it comes to seeding.
Offensively, they’re ranked fourth in efficiency. Defensively?
They’re the best in the country. That’s the kind of balance that wins championships.
Coach Dusty May’s squad has six regular-season games left before Big Ten tournament play, and they’re not easing into the finish line. This week brings a true test: a road matchup at Purdue on Tuesday, followed by a marquee nonconference showdown against Duke in Washington, D.C., on Saturday. Two high-stakes games, one massive opportunity to solidify their grip on a top seed.
Bracketology: All Eyes on the Midwest
Every major bracket projection has Michigan locked in as a 1-seed in the Midwest region. Whether it’s CBS, ESPN, Fox Sports, or Bracket Matrix, there’s consensus - and that’s not easy to come by in February.
Matchup projections vary slightly, with potential first-round opponents including Merrimack, UMBC, Morgan State, Bethune Cookman, or NJIT, depending on the outlet. But the key takeaway is this: if the tournament started today, Michigan would be sitting on the top line with a clear path through the Midwest.
Last Week’s Statement Wins
Michigan didn’t just win last week - they made statements.
On Feb. 11, they were in Evanston taking on Northwestern. The first half?
Rough. The start of the second?
Even worse. Down 16 with just under 15 minutes left, the Wolverines flipped the switch.
What followed was a 45-17 run that turned a potential upset into an 87-75 victory. L.J.
Cason had a breakout performance with a career-high 18 points, Yaxel Lendeborg added 15, and three more players - Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara, and Trey McKenney - each chipped in 12. That’s the kind of depth that separates contenders from pretenders.
Then came the Feb. 14 matchup against UCLA. It was close at halftime, with Michigan up just two.
But the second half? Pure dominance.
The Wolverines shot a blistering 78.3% (18-for-23) and outscored the Bruins 46-18 after the break. Final score: 86-56.
Lendeborg led again with 17 points, while Johnson was a perfect 6-for-6 from the field and hit all three of his free throws for 15 points.
That win marked Michigan’s 10th victory this season by 30 or more points. Let that sink in.
Understanding the Selection Committee’s Process
When it comes to selecting and seeding teams for the NCAA Tournament, the committee looks at a handful of key criteria:
- Overall and conference records - Michigan’s 24-1 mark speaks for itself.
- Strength of schedule - The Wolverines have handled tough opponents, both in and out of conference.
- Head-to-head results and common opponents - These become more important when comparing bubble teams, but Michigan’s dominance gives them the edge here too.
- Conference championships - If Michigan closes strong and takes the Big Ten crown, that’s another feather in their cap.
- NET and Team Value Index - Michigan leads the nation in both.
- RPI - While less emphasized than in past years, it still factors into the overall picture.
Simply put, Michigan checks every box.
Looking Ahead
This week will go a long way in determining just how high Michigan can climb. Win at Purdue - one of the toughest road environments in the Big Ten - and follow it up with a win over a blue blood like Duke on a neutral floor? That’s the kind of stretch that locks in a No. 1 overall seed and sends a message to the rest of the country: this team isn’t just peaking - it’s built for a deep March run.
With six games left before the Big Ten tournament, Dusty May has his group locked in, playing their best basketball at the right time. The defense is elite, the offense is efficient, and the depth is showing up night after night.
Selection Sunday is coming fast. And right now, all signs point to Michigan being front and center when the brackets are revealed.