A week ago, Ohio State’s trip to USC looked like the kind of game where the Buckeyes might need to light up the scoreboard just to survive.
Then Wisconsin dragged USC into mud and held the Trojans to seven points.
That 24-7 loss in Madison changed the picture fast. It was the fewest points a Lincoln Riley team has ever scored, and it knocked USC out of the AP top 25.
The Trojans now sit at 6-2 with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, which means Saturday’s matchup in the Coliseum doesn’t look like the shootout many expected. It looks like something else entirely.
And what Wisconsin exposed was ugly.
USC entered the game averaging 36.4 points and 462.4 yards per outing, while leading the country in first downs. Jayden Maiava had been the Big Ten’s passing yards leader at 292.1 per game and had thrown only three interceptions on 224 attempts. Even the offensive line had earned a spot on the Joe Moore Award midseason watch list.
None of that traveled with the Trojans.
They finished with 241 total yards, the fewest under Riley, and never produced a play of 20 yards or more. USC went 1 for 3 in the red zone, and four drives died in Wisconsin territory without a single point.
Maiava finished 31 of 50 for 258 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, including one that set up Wisconsin’s first points at the USC 18. He was sacked five times and flagged twice for intentional grounding.
The ground game was even worse. USC managed minus-17 rushing yards on 25 carries.
Strip away the 57 yards lost on sacks, and the Trojans’ running backs still got nowhere. Riley didn’t hide from it afterward: “We flat-out didn’t play good enough on any of the three sides of the ball.”
For Ohio State, the bigger takeaway is obvious: Wisconsin didn’t just beat USC, it showed how to beat USC.
Stop the run, force the Trojans into obvious passing downs, and make Maiava work under pressure. Once the offense got behind the sticks, it stalled.
That matters because the Buckeyes have been excellent against the run lately, holding Iowa to 39 rushing yards, Maryland to 82 and Indiana to 73 over their last three games. Indiana, by the way, entered that game averaging 221 rushing yards a contest.
If Ohio State can squeeze USC the same way Wisconsin did, Maiava will be living in those same third-and-long situations that led to five sacks in Madison.
The one thing the Buckeyes still have to prove is the pass rush. That’s been a shaky piece at times this season, and Wisconsin showed exactly how uncomfortable pressure can make Maiava.
Ryan Day expects to have most of his injured defenders back, likely including Kenyatta Jackson Jr. If that group can win a few one-on-one battles on third down, Ohio State has a real shot to control the game on defense.
That would be a huge shift from where this matchup seemed to stand last week.
Back then, the concern was a true freshman quarterback making his first career start on the road, at night, on Halloween, in the Coliseum, against one of the Big Ten’s best offenses. Now the more realistic path looks a lot closer to the Indiana game: physical, lower scoring, and decided by whether Ohio State’s defense can set the tone while the offense stays clean.
That changes the job for Luke Fahey, or whoever gets the start. USC’s defense has given up 25 points per game, so there should still be chances to move the ball. If Ohio State can lean on Bo Jackson and Isaiah West, get Jeremiah Smith involved on quick throws and protect the football, it won’t need 35 points to win.
Still, there’s a catch. USC is heading home on a Saturday night with its season teetering and its playoff hopes on life support.
That’s a dangerous setup for a young quarterback making his first start. The Trojans will come out swinging, and the crowd will be loud from the opening snaps.
So yes, this is still Ohio State’s toughest game left because of the stage, the travel, the kickoff time and the desperation on the other side.
But Wisconsin just handed the Buckeyes a blueprint. And unlike USC, Ohio State has the defense to follow it.
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