With the 2026 college football season at roughly the halfway point, the divide is getting sharper. Some teams are still chasing the College Football Playoff. Others are staring at a stretch run that could go off the rails in a hurry.
A few of the most vulnerable programs are already hanging by a thread. Texas A&M, sitting at 3-3, has taken a beating with a home loss to Kentucky and road defeats to LSU by 29 points and Missouri by 21 points.
The Aggies should be okay this week against Citadel, but the relief may be short-lived. Alabama and South Carolina are next on the road, Tennessee comes to town, then it’s a trip to Oklahoma before Texas closes the schedule.
A 6-6 finish looks generous with that kind of path ahead.
Michigan is in a different spot at 3-2, but the margin for error is still razor thin. This weekend’s matchup with Penn State could tell the whole story.
After that come games against Indiana, Oregon, and UCLA, plus the regular-season finale with Ohio State. Right now, a 7-5 ceiling feels about right, and a loss to Penn State would open the door to a real collapse.
The Week 1 escape against Western Michigan makes the whole thing look a little more fragile than it should.
Florida State is already in trouble at 3-3, and Mike Norvell’s status isn’t getting any sturdier. Miami is up next, and that’s followed by Clemson, Pittsburgh, and Florida still waiting on the schedule. Another losing season is squarely in play, and it’s tough to see how Norvell is still in Tallahassee next year if this keeps going the way it has.
Colorado has also gone sideways fast. Coach Prime’s team has dropped three straight and could easily make that four with Utah and Oklahoma State coming up.
The schedule does soften after that, but a 2-5 team might not have the focus to salvage much of anything. After what Deion has shown recently, it’s fair to wonder how much longer he’ll be with CU.
LSU’s situation is the most complicated of the bunch. The Tigers have flashed enough quality to keep things from feeling completely lost, but they’re coming off a second loss and now have Alabama and Texas in back-to-back weeks to start November.
A road game at Tennessee is still ahead too, and 7-5 is absolutely on the table for Lane Kiffin’s team. That would not have matched the expectation when LSU spent around $140-$150 million to move on from Brian Kelly and hire Kiffin.
In Other News...
Michigans Turnover Problem Just Forced A Change They Couldnt Avoid
Michigans turnover trouble has become hard to ignore, and Kyle Whittingham sounded like a coach who knows the margin is no longer a side note. Speaking Monday, he stressed how important it is to win the turnover battle, especially after a season in which Michigan has slipped to a minus-4 turnover margin and watched clean defensive starts get undercut by mistakes on the other side of the ball.
The latest response was a change at punt returner, a move triggered by recent miscues and one the staff could no longer put off. Michigan has lost the turnover margin in four of its past five weeks, and the pattern has lined up too neatly with the losses for anyone around the program to dismiss it as bad luck. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan Bye Week Puts Bryce Underwood And The Offense On Notice
Michigans bye week arrived with the offense still searching for answers and the bigger picture looking a lot less comfortable than the program is used to. The Wolverines have fallen well short of recent standards, and with four wins needed in the final seven games just to avoid matching their worst mark since 2014, the pressure is squarely on sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood and offensive coordinator Jason Beck to get things moving in a better direction.
The break does buy the coaching staff some time, and head coach Whittingham is being given that window to sort through the issues and keep building toward a more consistent identity. For Michigan, the week is less about rest than reflection, a chance to step back, make adjustments and figure out whether the offense can start looking like something the rest of the schedule will have to take seriously. [Read more 🡒]
Michigans UCLA Test Suddenly Feels Very Different For One Reason
UCLAs win over Oregon kept the Bruins unbeaten and pushed them deeper into the national conversation, but the bigger news for Michigans coming trip out west is the change under center. Nico Iamaleava is now likely out for the season, and UCLA is expected to turn to Cal Poly transfer Ty Dieffenbach at quarterback as it moves into a brutal stretch that also includes Wisconsin and USC.
For Michigan, the matchup now looks different in a hurry. What had been shaping up as a test against an unbeaten team suddenly comes with a layer of uncertainty, because the Bruins are trying to replace a key piece on the fly while still protecting their perfect record. The Wolverines still have their own goals to chase, but the quarterback situation alone gives this meeting a very different feel than it had just days ago. [Read more 🡒]