Michigan is heading into another Top-25 showdown Saturday, and this one may come down to a single number: zero.
That’s the standard Bryce Underwood has to hit if the Wolverines want to get past Iowa. In the 17-10 win over Oklahoma in Week 2, Underwood put up 198 total yards and, just as importantly, protected the football. Michigan will need that same kind of clean performance again, because Iowa’s defense is built to make offenses miserable.
The matchup sets up as a grinder. Iowa is giving up just 4.3 points per game, while Michigan sits outside the top 90 nationally in total offense, passing yards per game and points per game. That puts a lot of pressure on Underwood to do the little things right and avoid the kind of mistake that can swing a tight game fast.
Michigan’s own defense has given the offense some cover so far. The Wolverines are allowing 13 points per game, and the breakdown shows how suffocating they’ve been.
Oklahoma managed only 10 points. Western Michigan scored 12, but six of those came directly off turnovers.
UTEP turned two Michigan giveaways into 14 points, and even the extra field goal the Miners got came after a roughing the passer penalty when the quarterback had become a runner.
Put another way, Michigan has allowed only one touchdown drive this season that didn’t come off a turnover. That’s a huge reason the Wolverines have been able to survive against two teams that won 10 games a season ago.
Iowa brings a productive offense into the game, averaging 477 yards and 37 points per outing. The Hawkeyes are running for 268 yards per game and passing for 209, though the schedule has been soft outside of Iowa State. Quarterback Hank Brown has completed 72 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Still, the big question is how Iowa handles a Michigan defense it hasn’t seen yet. The Wolverines’ front seven has to stand firm against the run.
If it does, Iowa could have a hard time moving the ball at all. Michigan’s defensive line already has more combined sacks and tackles for loss than any team in the Big Ten, and that group is expected to create problems.
The flip side is obvious: Michigan is probably going to have a hard time scoring, too. Underwood may need to carry the ball 20 times, and that makes ball security even more important. If he does throw, he’ll need to be willing to live with incomplete passes, get rid of the ball when it’s not there and, as the source of this game plan makes clear, accept ugly numbers if that’s what it takes.
The Oklahoma approach likely has to come back out. Underwood can’t force throws, and he can’t put the ball in harm’s way. The only stat that really matters is zero interceptions.
If Underwood stays clean, Michigan should have the edge. The teams are similar, but the Wolverines have more talent. Iowa won’t be able to make up that gap if Michigan, and especially Underwood, plays mistake-free football.
Of course, against Iowa, that’s much easier said than done.
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