Michigan’s season is going to be shaped by Bryce Underwood, whether the noise around the program wants to admit it or not. With an 8.5 win total hanging over the Wolverines, the range of possible outcomes is wide open.
Some are treating that number like an easy under. Others are looking at Michigan and seeing a team that could still crash the playoff picture, even with a schedule that is loaded from front to back.
Through all the coaching turnover, offseason drama, and the constant churn of the transfer portal, the pressure keeps circling back to Underwood. The No. 1-overall recruit is now entering his sophomore year with plenty left to prove after a freshman season that didn’t exactly live up to the billing.
He does have something he didn’t have before: proper coaching. And for a player with his profile, a major jump is hardly out of the question.
That makes the opener against Western Michigan more about Bryce Underwood than the scoreboard. Michigan should handle the game without much trouble. The real question is what the quarterback looks like while doing it, and what kind of Week 1 stat line he puts on the board.
A year ago, the early returns were encouraging enough to give Michigan some hope. Underwood wasn’t even a sure thing to start right away, but he ended up taking the field against New Mexico.
A rough trip to Norman came next, though that was hardly a shock. Then he answered with a strong showing against Central Michigan in Week 3.
Against those two Group of Five opponents, Underwood completed 66.1 percent of his passes. He posted a passer rating above 140 in both games, threw one interception and two touchdown passes, and added two more scores on the ground.
The finish to the season told a much harsher story. Ohio State and Texas were obviously a different level of opponent, but the results were brutal. Underwood completed just 51.7 percent of his throws in those games, tossed two touchdowns against four interceptions, and saw his passer ratings sink while confidence - from both the fan base and the quarterback himself - faded fast.
When the full freshman season is stacked up, the numbers are ugly. Among 100 qualified quarterbacks, Underwood finished 88th in completion rate, 70th in yards per attempt, 99th in passing touchdowns, and 94th in passer rating. Even allowing for Michigan’s run-heavy offense and a head coach who was…not focused on football, that’s a rough profile.
So what should Week 1 look like now? At the very least, Underwood needs to beat last year’s averages.
That means more than 0.8 touchdowns per game, more than 7.2 yards per attempt, and more than 186.8 passing yards. Against an opponent like this, that shouldn’t be a heavy lift.
If he comes out flat anyway, it would be hard not to sound the alarm.
There’s also reason to think he can get rolling quickly. He handled weaker competition well early last season, then flashed against teams like Wisconsin and Washington in the middle of the year. The tougher games exposed him, and that won’t be as easy to excuse this fall, but there’s still evidence he can do damage when the matchup is right.
If the opener were being set on paper, 250 passing yards and 65-percent completion would feel like the floor, along with multiple touchdown throws. Western Michigan is expected to be better on defense than it is on the other side of the ball, but that doesn’t look like enough to cause real concern. If forced to make the call now, the guess is nearly 300 passing yards, three-plus touchdown passes, and maybe one score with his legs too.
That’s a demanding bar, but it’s also the right one. Underwood has critics to quiet, and the quickest way to do it is with a sharp first game.
Week 2 will matter even more, but a timid opener would only pile on the pressure. Michigan is tied to its quarterback’s growth, and the standard needs to be high from the start of the 2026 season.
He showed in those early games last year that this is a fair expectation.
In Other News...
Michigans Offensive Line Battle Could Shape Everything For Bryce Underwood
Michigans offensive line is still very much a work in progress, and the ripple effect could be felt everywhere once Bryce Underwood takes the field. Jake Guarnera is projected to anchor the middle after previously working at guard, Andrew Sprague is expected to hold down right tackle, and the rest of the unit remains up for grabs as coaches sort through a group that includes Andrew Babalola, Evan Link, Blake Frazier, Brady Norton and Nathan Efobi.
The bigger picture is familiar for this stage of camp: Michigan is still trying to identify its best five linemen, even if that means moving players around to different spots. Some of the competition may come down to who can handle a switch from tackle to guard, and those decisions matter because the protection in front of Underwood will shape how much the offense can do early on. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan Adds A Player Development Voice Fans Will Want Watching
Mike Boynton Jr. wasted little time putting his stamp on Michigans staff after taking over as head coach, and the latest additions suggest a clear emphasis on teaching as much as recruiting. Brown head coach Mike Martin and former Osceola Magic G-League coach Dylan Murphy are in, part of a reshuffled group that replaces four assistant coaches and gives the program a different look on the sideline.
Murphys background is the part that should catch fans attention. He comes with NBA G League experience and a reputation for player development, along with ties to several former Michigan players, and he has pointed to basketball IQ and relationship building as the foundation of his approach. In a program trying to define what comes next under Boynton, those are the kinds of details that can matter long after the initial coaching carousel settles down. [Read more 🡒]