Week 9 didn’t do much to help the bankroll, but the board for Week 10 gives us another shot to right the ship. The slate is loaded, even if the Big Ten portion of it isn’t quite the centerpiece it looked like it might be earlier in the year.
Oregon vs. Ohio State was supposed to be the headliner, but that game lost plenty of shine after the Ducks faded into irrelevancy.
Still, there are enough spots here to make this a fun weekend to handicap.
As always, the numbers below come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
Nebraska’s late-game troubles have become a weekly theme, and that’s what makes Friday night at Illinois so tricky. The Cornhuskers have coughed up fourth-quarter leads in each of their last three games, but they’ve still been a strong bet overall at 6-2 ATS and have covered four of their last five.
Illinois, meanwhile, sits at 3-4-1 ATS, and the defense just isn’t something I trust given where it ranks statistically. Nebraska -4.5 is the play.
The Bruins keep making this easy. UCLA is 8-0 ATS on the season, and until that changes, I’m not stepping in front of them.
Minnesota does deserve respect here, though, because the Gophers are 6-2 ATS themselves, which makes this a tougher test than UCLA has seen in a while. Even so, the pick stays with the Bruins at -5.5.
Maryland and Purdue are a pretty clean over spot, even if the side is harder to sort out. Both teams are 6-2 against the total, and neither defense has done much to stop anyone.
Maryland ranks 122nd in scoring defense, Purdue 124th. Add in the recent trend - Purdue has gone over in three of its last five, Maryland in four of its last five - and the over 56.5 is the call.
The Oregon-Ohio State number has been whipsawed all week. It opened much higher, dropped hard after Ohio State’s loss in Los Angeles, then climbed back to 7.5.
Even with that movement, the under 46.5 still looks best. Ohio State’s defense remains elite despite last week’s mess, Oregon’s offense has been a problem, and both teams are dealing with backup quarterbacks.
That points to a lower-scoring game.
Penn State’s trip to Washington has seen the line swing hard in the Huskies’ direction. The Nittany Lions were favored by 1.5 on Sunday, and now Washington is laying 2.5.
When a spread moves that far, it’s usually worth following the shift. Washington -2.5 is the pick.
Wisconsin gets a chance to reset at home against Rutgers after a rough stretch. The Badgers followed their upset over USC with a 30-0 loss to Iowa, but this matchup offers a chance to get back on track.
Wisconsin has been better at home, going 3-1 ATS there, while Rutgers is just 1-2 ATS on the road. Wisconsin -17.5 fits.
Iowa at Northwestern has the feel of a strange but important elimination game, at least in the CFP picture. The loser is done, and that makes the Wildcats’ home form stand out.
Northwestern is 4-1 at Ryan Field and comes in looking to recover from a tough loss at Oregon. With the total split between Iowa’s usual under tendencies and Northwestern’s tendency to go over, the side is the cleaner look.
Northwestern -3.
Michigan and Michigan State close the night in a rivalry game where both teams seem more focused on avoiding disaster than chasing style points. Michigan has been a bad favorite all year at 1-5 ATS, while Michigan State hasn’t been much better as an underdog.
The better angle is the under 39.5. Michigan’s offense ranks 115th nationally in scoring, Michigan State’s 125th, and while Michigan’s defense is the strongest unit in the game, expecting the Wolverines’ offense to suddenly roll is asking a lot from this 2026 team.
In Other News...
Michigan Hiring Story Feels Bigger After Biff Poggis Latest Reveal
Michigans coaching search took on a different shape this week after Biff Poggi said he was a finalist for the job before Kyle Whittingham was hired. Poggi had already become a familiar face in the program after stepping in as interim head coach during Sherrone Moores absences, and then again after Moore was fired ahead of the bowl game against Texas following an inappropriate relationship with a staffer. His latest reveal only adds another layer to a transition that has already been unusually turbulent.
Poggi also made clear hes backing Whittingham as he settles into the job, even while acknowledging the challenge of adapting to the Big Ten. For Michigan, its another reminder that the coaching change was never just about one hire, but about how the program steadies itself after a messy stretch and hands the keys to someone new. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan Faces An Early Reality Check In UConn Rematch
Fridays National Championship rematch with UConn arrives early in the season, but it already feels like a useful measuring stick for Michigan. The Huskies bring the kind of defense that can expose every loose possession and every quiet stretch, while Michigan is still sorting out how its offense will look when the game tightens and the pressure rises.
Mike Boynton Jr. has pointed to the adjustments Michigans players need to make if they want to compete with a team like UConn, and that starts with more production from the right people at the right time. The Wolverines do not need a perfect night to make this one interesting, but they do need key scorers to assert themselves against a defense that rarely gives away easy answers. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan Enters Rivalry Week With One Huge Chance To Change Everything
Rivalry week has a way of sharpening every detail, and Michigan is heading into this one with plenty to clean up and plenty to gain. The Wolverines are set to host Michigan State with both sides looking for a jolt, while Michigans offense keeps working to tighten the connection between quarterback Tommy Carr and receiver Andrew Marsh.
On the other side of the ball, the defense is expecting reinforcements with John Henry Daley and Dom Nichols on the way back, which only adds to the intrigue of how this matchup might tilt. There is also no shortage of game-changing possibilities attached to Michigans defense and special moments waiting to happen, from Chris Bracy in the backfield to Rod Moore and Jyaire Hill in the passing lanes, with Savion Hiter another name to watch if the Wolverines can turn this rivalry into a statement day. [Read more 🡒]