Michigan State heads into Ann Arbor carrying a pile of injury questions, a losing streak, and a line that feels hefty for a rivalry game. Vegas has Michigan laying 13.5 at home, with the total set at 39.5, but that number looks inflated if the Spartans get even a little healthier after their bye.
The biggest issue for Michigan State is obvious: the quarterback situation. The last time out, the prediction leaned on Alessio Milivojevic and Jazzuin Patterson being available, and neither played.
With a true freshman starting at quarterback, the Spartans struggled to get much of anything going offensively and lost by 18, while the game finished with just 38 points. That missed the over by 5.5 points and pushed the season record further into the red at 7-8-1.
The injury list in East Lansing has been brutal for a while. Michigan State has been without its top four cornerbacks and top two linebackers for the last three games, and it still managed to hang around against opponents like ranked Northwestern. But the quarterback injury that sidelined Milivojevic, plus the issue with Patterson after Cam Edwards was lost for the season, left the Spartans with very little margin for error in their road loss to top-10 UCLA two weeks ago.
Now comes the part that makes this matchup tricky: the bye week. Michigan State may be healthier than the market expects, and that’s why the timing matters here, with the first availability report still to come. The numbers could shift, but for now the bet is being made based on what’s already known.
The rivalry itself also matters. These games have a way of staying tighter than the paper matchup suggests, no matter what the rosters look like.
Michigan has won the last four meetings, and the Wolverines recently committed to Lloyd Carr’s grandson, Tommy Carr, as their starting quarterback, ending the Bryce Underwood experiment. Michigan has also won three of its last five, while Michigan State has dropped six straight.
Even with that, the spread still feels too wide for a game involving the two lowest-scoring offenses in the Big Ten. Michigan State ranks last at 19.9 points per game, and Michigan is next-to-last at 21.3.
My Prediction
Michigan State +13.5
Under 39.5
In Other News...
Michigan State Faces Its First Real Test On A Quick Turnaround
Michigan State opened the season with a comfortable 96-59 win over Quinnipiac, but the real rhythm test arrives fast. The Spartans are already turning around for Thursdays matchup with Toledo, a game that should ask more of Tom Izzos group than the opener did and leave little time to dwell on what went right.
Izzo pointed to the challenge of having only two days to get ready, which is part of what makes this stretch worth watching early in the season. There is also the return of Jesse McCulloch to consider after he sat out the opener with a minor concussion, and his expected availability gives Michigan State another layer to sort through before a tougher opponent comes into view. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan States Best Upset Hope Looks Brutal Against Michigan
For a Michigan State team still searching for its clearest path to an upset, this rivalry game in Ann Arbor offers the kind of setting that can reset a season in a hurry. The Spartans head into the Big House facing a Michigan team that is favored by 13.5 points, but the matchup still has the ingredients that usually make this series feel bigger than the records attached to it.
Both offenses have struggled this season, which puts even more pressure on two defenses that have carried much of the load for each side. Under the lights, it figures to be a physical, tight Big Ten game where field position and mistakes may matter more than style points, and Michigan State will need to find some answers against a rival that has looked like the safer bet on paper. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan State Will Test The One Weak Spot In Michigan's New QB
Tommy Carr will get another chance to settle in as Michigans starter when he takes the field for his third straight game against Michigan State, and the matchup arrives with plenty of eyes on how he handles the moment. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has already made the call on the quarterback job, and Carr has given the Wolverines enough to like in recent weeks, including Big Ten Freshman of the Week recognition.
The next step is less about raw talent than timing, especially on the deep throws where Carr and Whittingham have pointed to some cleanup work. Michigan State, meanwhile, is preparing for the rivalry with the kind of extra attention that usually comes with this game, as the staff works to make sure players understand what it means. That gives the Spartans a clear place to test a young quarterback who has looked promising, but not quite finished. [Read more 🡒]