Michigan State’s trip to No. 9 UCLA sets up as a strange sort of proving ground, and the betting angle for this one is built around the Bruins’ backup quarterback.
UCLA comes in with the kind of rushing attack that can bury an opponent fast. The Bruins lead the Big Ten in that category at 231.0 yards per game, and that’s the part Michigan State has to wrestle away if it wants any chance of hanging around. The Spartans have dropped five straight, though the last two losses were by a combined four points, and they head west with a 2-5 record and little outside confidence attached to them.
That lack of expectations is part of why Michigan State has a path to staying in this game. Even though the Spartans are still viewed as one of the worst teams in the conference, they’re also in a spot where they can swing freely. The writer even picked Michigan State to win in the score prediction piece.
The key, though, is forcing UCLA away from its preferred script. If the Spartans can slow the ground game, the ball should land more often in the hands of Ty Dieffenbach.
The backup quarterback threw for 264 yards last week against Wisconsin, and Michigan State just gave up 226 passing yards to Aidan Chiles despite being without its top four cornerbacks. For the second straight week, all four of those cornerbacks will be out.
That creates the opening here: Michigan State trying to make UCLA throw, and Dieffenbach doing enough through the air to clear a passing number that looks very reachable.
My Pick
Ty Dieffenbach over 174.5 passing yards (-155)
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