Michigan State’s path through the Big Ten looks a whole lot friendlier now than it did a couple weeks ago, and the reason has as much to do with what’s happening around the league as what the Spartans have done themselves.
MSU has taken care of the games it was supposed to win. It opened with a 30-20 victory over Toledo and followed that by rolling Eastern Michigan 35-7 on Saturday.
That kind of start matters, especially for a team that entered the year with just a 32.7% shot at a bowl game in ESPN’s College Football Power Index. That number has now climbed to 59.4%.
The Spartans earned some of that bump by simply avoiding bad losses. But a few Big Ten teams on the schedule have already handed Michigan State some help by stumbling in spots they were expected to handle.
Rutgers delivered the loudest shock. The Scarlet Knights dropped a game to UMass, and the result stood out because the Minutemen have long been viewed as one of the weakest teams in the FBS.
UMass went 0-12 last season, was outscored 89-13 in games against Iowa and Missouri in 2025, and ESPN’s SP+ even had Ferris State and Grand Valley State ranked ahead of it before the Rutgers game. Then UMass went out and scored 37 points on Rutgers.
That made the loss look even worse. The Minutemen had not scored more than 21 points against any FBS opponent last year, and the 21 points they allowed would have matched their fewest allowed in the entire 2025 season.
Rutgers is now 0-2 after also losing to a Boston College team that probably isn’t very good. Michigan State doesn’t see the Scarlet Knights until the regular-season finale, but that should be a game in which the Spartans are favored.
Oregon also took a hit. The Ducks slid 15 spots to No. 21 after losing on the road to Oklahoma State, and that result carried extra weight because the Cowboys had opened their own season with a loss to Tulsa. Oregon had already shown some vulnerability the week before, too, when Boise State had it down 17-7 late in the first half and tied at 24 with eight minutes left.
Illinois joined the list of teams that have made themselves look more reachable. The Illini fell 31-27 to Duke on Saturday.
That’s not on the same level as Rutgers losing to UMass or Oregon falling to Oklahoma State, but it still counts as an upset. Duke is the reigning ACC champion, though it’s a different-looking team now after starting quarterback Darian Mensah and 1,000-yard receiver Cooper Bartake both left for Miami (FL) in the portal.
Illinois also looked shaky in its opener against UAB, when it was headed to halftime with only a one-point lead before finishing off a Hail Mary. Michigan State gets Illinois on Oct. 10 in its homecoming game.
Michigan has also helped shape the picture in a roundabout way. The Wolverines wiped away a rough opening-week result with a statement win over Oklahoma on Saturday and moved back to No. 19 in the rankings Sunday. Even with the Western Michigan controversy hanging around, Michigan still lined up against a MAC team and won by one point, and that alone points to some vulnerability.
What stands out through the first two weeks is pretty clear: Michigan’s defense is excellent, but the offense has not matched it. The seven-point margin against Oklahoma was influenced heavily by an interception that set up UM at the Sooners’ 6-yard line in the fourth quarter.
Washington has also come out of the gate below expectations. The Huskies are 2-0, but they have not won either game by the kind of margin many would have projected. They beat Washington State 24-10 in their opener and then got past Utah State 16-14 on Saturday.
Both of those opponents belong to the rebuilt Pac-12. ESPN’s FPI has Washington State as the second-worst team in the eight-team league and Utah State as the third-worst. Utah State also started its season with a 12-point loss to FCS opponent Idaho State.
In Other News...
Tom Izzo May Have Just Moved Ahead For A Huge 2027 Target
Michigan State used a recent recruiting weekend to put two of its top 2027 targets in front of Tom Izzo and his staff, welcoming five-star point guard Antonio Pemberton and four-star center Jaydn Jenkins to campus. The timing mattered, too, with the Spartans continuing to lean into early evaluation and relationship-building as they try to position themselves well for a class that is still taking shape.
Now there is real momentum to monitor with Pemberton, the No. 23 overall prospect in the 2027 class. A report from Joe Tipton suggests Michigan State has emerged as the favorite for the top-25 recruit, a sign that the Spartans may have moved ahead in a recruitment that still has room to evolve. For a program that has long sold player development and trust, landing in front this early is the kind of progress Izzo wants to see. [Read more 🡒]
Brady Pretzlaff Just Took On A Bigger Michigan State Role
Michigan State is off to a 2-0 start in its first season under Pat Fitzgerald, and the latest win came with a familiar test for a defense trying to establish its identity early. In a 35-7 victory over Eastern Michigan at Spartan Stadium, the Spartans got another strong team showing, but the day also created room for a different voice to emerge when the defense needed one.
With Jordan Hall unavailable, redshirt sophomore Brady Pretzlaff handled a larger responsibility and spoke afterward about stepping into the moment, the standards Michigan State expects on defense and how much it means just to be back on the field. For a program still settling in under a new coach, that kind of growth matters almost as much as the scoreboard, especially when the next stretch will ask even more from the players now carrying the load. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan State Is Counting On Anton Bonke To Silence One Doubt
Michigan States interior picture is taking shape around Anton Bonke, the 7-foot-2 transfer from Charlotte who is expected to step in as the starting center after Carson Cooper. Tom Izzo has shown plenty of confidence in Bonke, and the Spartans are banking on the blend of size, development and continuity that has long been part of the programs identity. Bonke is also expected to help ease the transition for incoming freshman Ethan Taylor, which adds another layer to why his role matters so much early.
Still, there is a bit of outside skepticism attached to the assignment. College Basketball Report left Bonke off its Top 30 centers in college basketball, even as several Big Ten big men earned spots on the list, underscoring how much Michigan State is asking him to prove right away. For a program that tends to trust its own developmental track, Bonkes season will be about more than simply filling minutes in the middle. [Read more 🡒]