Michigan State's passing wizardry meets North Dakota State's sharpshooting. Can the Spartans' dominance on the boards secure a win?
Matchup: Michigan State Spartans (25-7) vs. North Dakota State Bison (27-7)
Event: NCAA Tournament Round of 64
Location: KeyBank Center - Buffalo, NY
Broadcast: TNT
Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans are back in familiar territory-March Madness. This marks their 28th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, underscoring the consistency and culture Izzo has cultivated in East Lansing.
This year's Spartans are led by a standout playmaker: Jeremy Fears Jr. Fears has shattered Cassius Winston’s Michigan State record of 291 assists, set during the 2019-20 season. Entering the tournament with 294 assists, Fears ranks third all-time for a single season in Big Ten history, trailing only Braden Smith’s recent totals.
Michigan State thrives on ball movement, averaging 18.5 assists per game, which ties them for fifth nationally. This reflects their unselfish play and offensive rhythm.
In the paint, the Spartans are anchored by seniors Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper. Kohler is a force on the glass, averaging 9.0 rebounds and 12.7 points per game, while also stretching defenses with his shooting range. He's not your typical big man, hitting 1.6 threes per game, which opens up the floor for his teammates.
Cooper complements Kohler with a physical presence, averaging 7.1 rebounds and 10.8 points per game. He controls the interior and often finishes off alley-oop passes from Fears, energizing both team and fans.
With this frontcourt duo, alongside Coen Carr’s athleticism and Jordan Scott’s hustle, Michigan State consistently wins the rebounding battle. They rank 15th nationally in total rebounds per game and 27th in offensive rebounds.
On paper, Michigan State’s strength on the boards and ball movement contrasts sharply with North Dakota State’s sharpshooting prowess. The Bison average 9.4 made three-pointers per game and shoot 36.5% from deep, giving them a slight scoring edge at 80.7 points per game compared to MSU’s 78.9.
Defensively, North Dakota State disrupts opponents with 8.3 steals per game, notably more than Michigan State’s 5.1.
However, the Spartans have advantages in critical areas that often decide tournament games: rebounding, ball sharing, and free-throw shooting-key factors in tight contests.
Prediction:
For North Dakota State to pull off an upset, they need to catch fire from beyond the arc. Michigan State has shown vulnerability to slow starts, and if the Bison can capitalize with a strong shooting performance, they could pressure the Spartans.
Yet, Michigan State enters with something to prove following back-to-back losses, including a disappointing Big Ten Tournament exit. Expect a focused and motivated squad, especially with veterans Kohler and Cooper eyeing a deep tournament run. The urgency for a Final Four appearance should be evident from the start.
Final Score Prediction:
Michigan State - 80
North Dakota State - 68