Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament Seeding Takes a Hit After Blowout Loss to Wisconsin
Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad hit a serious speed bump in its pursuit of a high NCAA Tournament seed, falling hard on the road against Wisconsin in a 92-71 loss that exposed some concerning cracks in the Spartans’ armor.
It was Michigan State’s only game of the week, but it was a rough one - their third loss in the last four outings and easily their most lopsided defeat of the season. The Badgers came out firing, and the Spartans never found their footing.
From the opening tip, Wisconsin dictated the pace, draining 10 threes in the first half and finishing with 15 from deep overall. That kind of perimeter onslaught is tough to come back from, especially when you’re also giving up 11 offensive boards and 19 second-chance points.
This wasn’t just a bad night - it was the kind of performance that can shift the trajectory of a team’s seeding in March. Michigan State, now 20-5 overall and 10-4 in Big Ten play, has seen its Big Ten title hopes fade fast. They’re three games behind the conference leader with only six to play, and the loss has nudged them down the bracket lines in most projections.
Just a week ago, the Spartans were hovering around a potential 2-seed. Now?
They’re trending closer to a 5, depending on which bracket you’re looking at. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently has them hanging on as the last 4-seed on his S-curve.
CBS Sports has already dropped them to a 5. It’s not panic time - not even close - but the margin for error is shrinking.
Still, Michigan State isn’t out of the hunt for a strong finish. The Spartans have two home games this week, and they’ll need both to stop the slide and build some momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament, which kicks off March 10 in Chicago.
The immediate goal? Climb back into the top four of the conference standings to secure one of those coveted triple-byes - which would mean not playing until Friday, March 13, and needing just three wins in three days to potentially give Izzo his seventh Big Ten tourney title.
Despite the recent losses, Michigan State’s resume still holds water. They’ve logged top-25 NET wins over Illinois, Arkansas, and North Carolina, and their overall profile remains strong.
As of the latest update, the Spartans sit at No. 15 in the NET rankings and No. 13 in KenPom, with a defense ranked seventh in efficiency. Offensively, though, they’re sitting at No. 43 - and that’s where the inconsistency has been showing up.
Here’s how the bracketologists are currently slotting Michigan State:
- USA TODAY: 3-seed in the East vs. Portland State
- CBS Sports: 5-seed in the South vs. South Florida
- On3: 4-seed in the South vs. UNC-Wilmington
- ESPN: 4-seed in the Midwest vs. ETSU
- Fox Sports: 3-seed in the East vs. Winthrop
- Bracket Matrix: 3-seed
- The Athletic: 3-seed in the South vs.
North Dakota State
There’s still time for Michigan State to stabilize and climb back up the seed line, but there’s no denying the urgency has increased. The Spartans have the experience, the coaching, and the talent to make a run - but they’ll need to tighten up defensively on the perimeter and start winning the hustle plays that have defined Izzo teams for decades.
Coen Carr was a bright spot in the Wisconsin loss, putting up 19 points and grabbing seven boards. Jeremy Fears Jr. added a double-double with 14 points and 12 assists, showing poise even as the game slipped away. But the team’s inability to defend the three and control the glass was glaring, and those are the kinds of issues that can derail a postseason push if not addressed quickly.
With the Big Ten Tournament just a few weeks away, the Spartans are entering a critical stretch. Every possession, every rebound, every rotation matters now - and if Michigan State wants to be playing deep into March, it starts with getting back to basics this week at home.