Michigan State opens a new chapter Friday night at Spartan Stadium, with Pat Fitzgerald taking the reins as the Spartans host Toledo at 8 p.m. on FS1.
It’s the start of a fresh season and a fresh direction for MSU after last year’s 4-8 finish and the move from Jonathan Smith to Fitzgerald. The Spartans do at least bring back one important piece in redshirt sophomore quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, who took over late last season and, according to the source material, showed poise and toughness.
Even with that, Michigan State is still being projected near the bottom of the 18-team Big Ten. The Spartans’ over/under win total sits at 4½, with the under heavily favored.
Toledo comes in with plenty of its own change. The Rockets finished 8-5 in 2025 and 6-2 in the Mid-American Conference, then fell to Louisville, 27-22, in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Jason Candle is gone to Connecticut, and Mike Jacobs steps in for his first season at this level after successful runs at Mercer, Lenoir-Rhyne and Notre Dame College (Ohio). His 94-23 record gives him a .803 winning percentage, which ranks fourth among active coaches in NCAA Divisions I and II.
The pick panel sees Michigan State getting the job done, though the scores vary. Chris Solari expects a run-heavy game, especially if the heavy rain forecast hits East Lansing, and thinks Fitzgerald will lean into the ground attack with UConn transfer Cam Edwards behind a reshaped offensive line. His pick: MSU 28, Toledo 14.
Shawn Windsor pointed to how much roster turnover Fitzgerald inherited, noting that roughly 40 players left last offseason because of the portal or eligibility. Even so, he believes the Spartans have enough to handle Toledo. His pick: MSU 26, Toledo 16.
Rainer Sabin also sees a game that may start choppy for both new staffs, but expects Michigan State to settle in first behind Milivojevic. His pick: MSU 28, Toledo 17.
Carlos Monarrez framed the night as the start of the Fitzgerald era and said MSU needs a win, even against a MAC opponent. He believes Milivojevic gives the Spartans the edge. His pick: MSU 27, Toledo 16.
Jeff Seidel, meanwhile, expects Fitzgerald to bring the toughness, physicality and fundamentals he’s known for, and said Milivojevic’s experience should show up behind a better offensive line. His pick: MSU 28, Toledo 14.
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