Michigan State basketball is back in the national spotlight - and not just because of its record. At 19-2 heading into Friday’s rivalry clash with Michigan, the Spartans are off to their best start in years, outpacing even last season’s 30-win squad that captured a Big Ten title and made a deep NCAA Tournament run to the Elite Eight. That team was praised for its “strength in numbers” approach, and this year’s group is echoing that same identity - but with a little more polish and a lot more momentum.
Despite the impressive start, national analysts are still tempering expectations. ESPN recently slotted Michigan State into its third tier of NCAA Tournament contenders - the “second-weekend threats” category - alongside programs like Florida, Arkansas, Kansas, Vanderbilt, Virginia, and Alabama. The label suggests a team with legitimate upside but also enough flaws to make a Final Four run uncertain.
“This tier is full of teams that have notable strengths but glaring weaknesses that could prevent them from advancing beyond the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight despite being capable of reaching those second-weekend rounds,” ESPN noted.
So, what’s keeping the Spartans from cracking into the top two tiers, where teams like Arizona, Michigan, and UConn (national championship favorites) or Duke, Houston, and Purdue (Final Four contenders) reside? It’s a mix of brilliance and inconsistency - a team that can look like a juggernaut one night and a work-in-progress the next.
Still, there’s plenty to like about what Tom Izzo is building. ESPN highlighted freshman point guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who’s been nothing short of a revelation.
Averaging 8.9 assists per game, Fears has taken the reins of the offense with poise beyond his years, directing traffic and setting the tone on both ends of the floor. His court vision and leadership have been instrumental in Michigan State’s defensive identity - one of the best in the nation, according to multiple metrics.
But there’s a caveat: turnovers. The Spartans have coughed it up on 20% of their possessions in Big Ten play - a number that’s hard to ignore, especially in March when every possession matters. For all their defensive grit and offensive potential, Michigan State has yet to prove it can consistently take care of the ball in high-pressure moments.
Still, the program’s consistency under Izzo is hard to overlook. If current projections hold, the Spartans are on track for a No. 2 seed and what would be their 28th straight NCAA Tournament appearance under the Hall of Fame coach - a staggering run of sustained excellence in the one-and-done era.
Their latest outing was a gritty overtime win at Rutgers, a game that tested their resolve and reminded everyone that even great teams need a little luck now and then. After the game, Izzo didn’t shy away from that reality.
“To win championships or to win a lot of games, you’ve gotta be good,” Izzo said. “But then, every now and then, you gotta be lucky.
Tonight, we’ll put that one on lucky’s side. We were lucky.
Can we learn from lucky? Sure, we’ll see if we can.”
That’s classic Izzo - brutally honest, always coaching, even in victory. With a quick turnaround before facing Michigan, he made it clear the learning process wouldn’t wait.
“We got a quick turnaround now. We’re gonna try to learn on the way home on the plane, I’m gonna have guys watching film. When we get home tomorrow it’s move on to Michigan, but we gotta learn from this game, because there was some things we did early that were not very good.”
There’s no denying this Michigan State team has the tools to make noise in March - a true floor general in Fears, a battle-tested coach, and a defense that travels. But the road to Houston will demand more than talent and toughness.
It’ll take growth. It’ll take execution.
And maybe, just maybe, a little more of that Izzo-approved luck.