Michigan State is sitting in a much more optimistic spot than plenty of people expected in the latest Big Ten projections, with the Spartans penciled in at No. 10 and a 7-5 overall mark.
That forecast puts Michigan State in bowl territory and, in the view of the projection, firmly in the middle of a Big Ten that has been shaken up from top to bottom. The Spartans are projected to finish 5-4 in conference play, a record that would match Penn State and Minnesota in the league standings.
The projection frames Michigan State’s season as a possible "shock the world" run under Pat Fitzgerald. While other predictions have the Spartans near the bottom of the league, this one sees them taking a significant step forward and clearing the bowl threshold with a game to spare.
The win total would stand out in a crowded 18-team conference. A 7-5 finish, according to the projection, would mark a major move in the right direction for Michigan State and place it in the center of the Big Ten pack.
Ahead of the Spartans in the projection are Minnesota at 7-5 and Penn State at 8-4, while Iowa is listed just behind Michigan State at 7-5 and 4-5 in conference play. The projection also notes that Iowa would have an off year and drop five Big Ten games.
At the top of the league, Ohio State is picked to edge Oregon for the regular-season title, with both teams finishing 10-2 overall and 8-1 in conference play. Ohio State is projected to beat Oregon head-to-head, giving the Buckeyes the nod.
USC lands at No. 3 in the projections at 10-2 overall and 7-2 in conference play, just behind the top two. The Trojans are predicted to lose only twice, both in league games, but still fall short of the summit.
The middle tier includes four three-loss teams: Washington, Indiana, Michigan and Illinois. Washington is projected at 9-3 overall and 6-3 in conference play, Indiana at 9-3 and 6-3, Michigan at 8-4 and 6-3, and Illinois at 9-3 and 6-3.
The rest of the conference is projected to settle into the following records: Wisconsin at 5-7 (3-6), Nebraska at 6-6 (3-6), UCLA at 5-7 (2-7), Purdue at 4-8 (2-7), Maryland at 3-9 (2-7), Northwestern at 4-8 (2-7) and Rutgers at 3-9 (1-8).
With Michigan State’s first game only a week and a half away on September 4, the projection closes on the same theme it opens with: the Big Ten is wide open, and surprises are coming.
In Other News...
Michigan State Gets A Defensive Leader Back At The Perfect Time
After missing most of last season because of injuries, Nikai Martinez is back in position to matter in a big way for Michigan States defense. The senior safety is getting ready for his final college football season, and all signs point to him stepping into a starting role for a unit that is still finding its footing under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald. His return gives the Spartans something they badly needed: experience, communication, and a steady presence in the back end.
Martinezs value goes beyond the depth chart. Even while he was recovering, he stayed involved with the team, and that presence helped keep him connected to the defense he is expected to help lead. The Spartans voted him one of their six captains, a clear sign of how much respect he has in the locker room. For a team trying to build a new identity, getting a veteran voice like Martinez back now feels especially important. [Read more 🡒]
Carlos Medlock Jr. Is Pushing For An Immediate Michigan State Role
Carlos Medlock Jr. is already drawing attention as a freshman who could carve out a real spot in Tom Izzos rotation before long. The guard is expected to be a significant part of Michigan States 2026-27 plans, and the early buzz around him centers on how naturally his game fits Izzos system, especially with the staff looking for steadier ball handling and fewer turnovers.
With Jeremy Fears also part of that backcourt picture, Medlock gives the Spartans another option who could ease pressure on the offense right away. Divine Ugochukwus transfer opens the door for Medlock to become the primary backup point guard, and the early expectation is that he could settle into a meaningful role rather quickly, with minutes there for the taking if he adjusts the way Michigan State hopes. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan States Gonzaga Test Just Got Even More Demanding
Michigan States December trip to face Gonzaga was already shaping up as one of the tougher non-conference games on the calendar, and the Bulldogs just added another experienced name to the mix. Gonzaga landed a commitment from guard Xaivian Lee, a former Florida and Princeton player who is hoping to keep his fifth-year eligibility intact, giving the Bulldogs another proven backcourt option as they continue building for the upcoming season.
Lee also spent time in the NBA Summer League, a sign that Gonzaga views him as more than a depth piece heading into a season with big expectations. For the Spartans, the matchup on Dec. 19 now looks even more demanding, with the Bulldogs bringing in a guard who adds both experience and another layer of talent to a roster already built to test anyone they face. [Read more 🡒]