Michigan State heads to South Bend for its first road game of the season, and the number hanging over this one is a monster: Notre Dame is laying 29.5 points with the total set at 52.5.
That spread tells you everything about how the market sees this matchup. It also tells you why this is an interesting spot for the Spartans, who are 2-0 and coming off a 35-7 win over Eastern Michigan. Michigan State scored 21 unanswered points in the second half in that one, and Cam Edwards did a lot of the damage, rushing for 152 yards and two touchdowns.
The Spartans have looked like a different team through the first two games of the Pat Fitzgerald era. Alessio Milivojevic has steadied things at quarterback, Edwards has become a true workhorse, and the defense just turned in the kind of performance that can change the mood around a team fast.
That’s enough to make the huge number hard to swallow.
Notre Dame is clearly a strong team, and the hype around the Fighting Irish is already pushing them into national championship conversation for some. But after watching their first two games, this feels more like a very good team than an untouchable one. That matters when you’re asking a program to cover nearly four touchdowns.
I’m taking Michigan State at +29.5, and I’d even be comfortable buying it down to +28.5 for even money. I’d be willing to put up to two units on the Spartans.
The total is trickier. 52.5 is a fair number, maybe even the right one, because it leaves room for Notre Dame to control stretches of the game without fully locking it down. The betting market doesn’t seem especially high on Michigan State’s offense, either - Cam Edwards is listed at +120 to score an anytime touchdown, which suggests modest expectations for the Spartans in the red zone.
Still, I’m not sold on the idea that Notre Dame gets out front and simply bleeds the clock the rest of the way. I expect both defenses to be better than people think, but I also think both teams will find enough success on offense to put points on the board.
Michigan State +29.5 (-115)
Over 52.5 (Even)
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