Michigan State’s bowl drought could stretch into 2026, but not everyone is buying that script.
Vegas has the Spartans sitting at an early 4.5-win over/under, a number that points toward a fifth straight season without a bowl appearance. That would be a rough run for a program whose longest bowl drought since the 1980s was the three-year stretch under John L.
Smith from 2004-06. Since then, Michigan State has missed only six bowls total, and four of those misses have come in the last four seasons.
Still, there’s at least one well-known college football voice that sees a more optimistic path. CFB Home projected Michigan State to finish 6-6 overall and 4-5 in Big Ten play, which would leave the Spartans tied for 11th in the conference.
Michigan State 2026 Predictions
6-6 (4-5, tied 11th in Big 10)
Vs Toledo- W
Vs Eastern Michigan- W
At Notre Dame- L
Vs Nebraska- L
At Wisconsin- W
Vs Illinois- W
Vs Northwestern- W
At UCLA- L
At Michigan- L
Vs Washington- L
Vs Oregon- L
At Rutgers- W pic.twitter.com/p62QGdq1x7
- CFB Home (@CFBHome) July 22, 2026
That forecast lines up with some obvious wins - Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Illinois, Northwestern and Rutgers - but it also includes a road win at Wisconsin. The Badgers have struggled under Luke Fickell, but Camp Randall is still a tough place to walk out of with a victory. A home win over Nebraska feels more believable.
There’s also a case for Michigan State stealing one at UCLA or against Washington, though both teams are expected to be much better than they were in 2025. Even so, the 6-6 range feels like a fair landing spot.
The more interesting question is whether the Spartans can climb higher than that. In a realistic best-case scenario, Michigan State could push into the 7-8 win range and snag a couple of upsets, including one at Michigan.
That path isn’t fantasy. Michigan State brings back its QB1 and adds one of the transfer portal’s top running backs to anchor the backfield.
The offensive line should improve, and while the receivers and tight ends remain unproven, the upside is there. The defense could be shaky early in the Pat Fitzgerald era, but that didn’t stop the Spartans from winning 11 games the last time MSU got to a bowl.
No one’s forecasting an 11-2 debut for Fitzgerald, and that kind of leap would make more sense in Year 2. But seven or eight wins? That’s on the table.
If Michigan State handles the games it should - Toledo and Eastern Michigan - and then finds a way to go 4-4 or 5-3 across the rest of its winnable slate, bowl eligibility is right there. The list of possible wins is long enough to make a six- or seven-win season feel a lot less far-fetched than it used to.
Coach Fitzgerald, if you hear this, please save us.
In Other News...
Michigan State Faces A Tough QB Verdict On Milivojevic And Chiles
Alessio Milivojevic enters the season with the kind of spotlight that comes with being Michigan States quarterback, even if it is a skeptical one. He stepped in late last year after Aidan Chiles transferred to Northwestern, and now the Spartans are asking Milivojevic to show he can hold the job on his own. The early read around the Big Ten is not especially flattering, with preseason evaluations treating both quarterbacks as unproven enough to sit well below the conferences established names.
Milivojevic and Chiles are still linked by more than their shared history in East Lansing, because the conversation around each has settled into the same uneasy place. Michigan State needs stability at the position, and Milivojevic has to provide it while Chiles tries to reset his career under Chip Kelly at Northwestern. For the Spartans, the real question is whether this is the start of a long look at Milivojevic or just another stop in a search that is still very much unfinished. [Read more 🡒]
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For a player who left with eligibility still on the table, the next step has become the real question. Holloman had sought a fifth year under the NCAAs five-in-five rule, and the possibility of one more college season would have obvious appeal for anyone still tracking his career from afar, especially with him back in the neighborhood and keeping his name in circulation. [Read more 🡒]
Jaxon Kohler May Not Be Done Breaking Michigan State Hearts
Jaxon Kohlers offseason has already been busy enough, with the former Michigan State big man getting a taste of NBA Summer League and even crossing paths with former teammate Carson Cooper along the way. He has also been around the BYU program this summer, showing up in pickup runs and keeping his name in the conversation as he weighs what comes next.
The bigger question now sits beyond the summer circuit and into the eligibility process, where Kohler is part of an effort that could change the length of his college career. If that route opens, his next stop may not be in East Lansing, and for Spartans fans still trying to sort through the roster churn, that possibility makes his story one worth watching a little longer. [Read more 🡒]