Michigan State football fans have spent the last decade taking hit after hit, and the latest blown-lead stat only puts numbers to the misery.
Since 2016, the Spartans have had an 80 percent win probability or higher in the fourth quarter 62 times. Seven of those games still slipped away. That works out to Michigan State losing 11.3% of the games it was positioned to finish off, a rate that ranks third-highest in the Big Ten behind Nebraska and Purdue.
That kind of number tells the story of a program that has too often found a way to let games unravel late. It has happened under multiple coaches, and it has become a defining theme of the post-Mark Dantonio era.
Michigan State has reached just four bowl games over that stretch and has gone through three coaching changes since 2016. The Spartans are now on their fourth coach in that span.
Some of those collapses are still fresh enough to sting. The most recent came Saturday against Northwestern. Michigan State had a 21-13 lead in the fourth quarter, then watched the game slip away after Northwestern tied it, lined up for a go-ahead field goal with a minute left, had the kick blocked, and then saw Aidan Chiles lead the Wildcats 60 yards in a minute before Northwestern won it with a field goal.
If that one was bad, the 2019 loss to Illinois is the one that still hangs over the fan base. Michigan State led 31-10 entering the fourth quarter and looked set to pick up a fifth win in a season that had already gone sideways. Instead, Illinois scored 27 points in the final quarter and pulled off one of the most shocking comeback losses in recent college football memory.
Other brutal finishes have piled up too, including the Iowa and Minnesota games last season. And for a lot of fans, much of the 2022-2025 stretch has blurred into one long stretch of frustration.
So yes, the stat sheet says it plainly: being a Michigan State football fan has not been for the weak. The pain has been real, and the blown leads have made sure of that. Still, there’s a belief hanging in the air that better days are coming under Fitzgerald.
In Other News...
Michigan States Early UConn Test Comes With One Big Unknown
An early-season exhibition in East Lansing will give Michigan State and UConn a useful first look at where their rosters stand before the games start counting. It is the kind of tune-up both programs can use, especially with a matchup that brings real attention and a chance to test lineups, rotations and pace against a high-level opponent.
Braylon Mullins is the biggest unknown on the UConn side. The guard sat out the Huskies' previous exhibition because of an undisclosed injury, and his status for this one has not been confirmed, leaving one more question hanging over a game that should offer both teams a valuable evaluation point before the regular season begins. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan State Is Changing Its Routine For A Huge UCLA Test
Michigan States trip to the Rose Bowl comes with a little extra weight, not just because of the opponent but because of the setting. The Spartans will face UCLA there in a regular-season game for the first time since 2013, and head coach Pat Fitzgerald has already laid out how the team is adjusting its travel and preparation routine for a matchup that feels bigger than a standard road game.
UCLA brings plenty of challenge into the meeting as well, entering unbeaten and ranked No. 9 under first-year coach Bob Chesney. For Michigan State, the backdrop matters, but so does the assignment in front of it, and the Spartans are treating the venue and the opponent as part of the same test. [Read more 🡒]
Jesse McCulloch May Be Forcing His Way Into MSU's Rotation
A preseason exhibition can be easy to overlook, but Jesse McCulloch made it harder to do that with his performance at power forward when Michigan State needed someone to fill in for injured Cam Ward. McCulloch showed the kind of offensive touch the Spartans have been hearing about throughout the offseason, finishing with 20 points while also contributing on the glass and giving the staff a look at a different kind of frontcourt option.
What stood out most was how natural the fit looked with his shooting and the possibility of using him as a pick-and-pop threat. McCulloch has spent the offseason working to round out his game, and he has pointed to former Spartan Carson Coopers development as a model for what that process can look like. Whether this becomes a one-night glimpse or something more meaningful for Michigan States rotation will depend on how the next few weeks unfold, but the door looks open. [Read more 🡒]