Michigan State is back in the Breslin Center on Thursday night with a matchup that looks a lot trickier than the opener. The Spartans host Toledo at 8 p.m. ET in East Lansing, with the game set for NBCSN and Peacock.
On paper, this is a meeting between two teams with March in mind. Michigan State comes in at 1-0 after a dominant win over Quinnipiac on Monday, while Toledo arrives at 0-1 after a close loss to Arkansas State, the Sun Belt Conference preseason favorite. Even with that setback, the Rockets are still viewed as one of the preseason favorites in the Mid-American Conference.
That’s why this one carries a different feel than Michigan State’s first game. Toledo is being treated as a tougher challenge than Quinnipiac, and the numbers back that up. The Rockets sit at No. 150 in Bart Torvik, nearly 100 spots ahead of Quinnipiac, which makes this a much more serious test for the Spartans.
The prediction here is Michigan State 81, Toledo 65.
If the Spartans bring the same level they showed in their opener, they can turn this into another comfortable result. But Toledo should provide more resistance, and if Michigan State gets loose with turnovers, misses free throws or goes cold from three, the game could stay tight longer than expected.
Still, Michigan State’s depth and talent edge should eventually take over. The expectation is that Toledo hangs around until at least midway through the second half before the Spartans pull away and avoid the upset scare. After that, Michigan State can shift its attention to a top 10 showdown with Duke next week.
In Other News...
Michigan State Is One Win From The Final After Wild Finish
Bella Najera delivered the kind of finish that can define a tournament run, scoring in the 96th minute to lift Michigan State past Washington, 3-2, in a wild Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal. The Spartans had to navigate a back-and-forth match that featured multiple swings in momentum before Najera finally put it away, sending Michigan State into the semifinals with plenty of drama still fresh from the quarterfinal stage.
Michigan State now gets the matchup it was hoping to earn, a semifinal date with Michigan and a chance to keep its postseason push alive against a familiar rival. After surviving a tense, high-scoring battle against Washington, the Spartans will carry both confidence and urgency into the next round, knowing one more win would put them within reach of the final. [Read more 🡒]
Tom Izzo Still Sees A Michigan State Problem After Blowout Win
Michigan States 91-61 win over Toledo looked comfortable on the scoreboard, and Tom Izzo had reasons to like what he saw. The Spartans showed off the kind of depth that can carry a team through a long season, and Izzo has been working through roster adjustments as he tries to settle on the right combinations. For a team with bigger goals ahead, it was the sort of game that can reinforce the upside without fully answering every question.
Izzo still came away focused on the details that tend to matter most once the competition gets sharper. Free-throw shooting and turnovers remained issues in his eyes, even in a lopsided victory, and that leaves Michigan State with work to do before Duke arrives on the schedule. A win like this helps the record, but it also serves as a reminder that the Spartans are still chasing cleaner execution. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan State Enters Rivalry Game With One Huge Problem On Offense
Michigan State heads into the rivalry trip to Ann Arbor carrying more than the usual pressure that comes with this matchup. Both programs have labored through uneven seasons under new head coaches, but Michigan enters with a sturdier defense and a healthier roster, while the Spartans are trying to piece together enough on offense to keep pace in a game that still figures to be tight.
The bigger concern for Michigan State is the state of its quarterback situation, which has been unsettled by injuries and leaves the offense in a difficult spot against a Michigan defense that should control large stretches of the game. Michigans offense has shown some recent improvement, but the Wolverines are still expected to lean on their defense to separate in a rivalry that rarely gives either side much margin for error. [Read more 🡒]