Michigan State’s trip to Notre Dame comes with a number that tells you everything about how Vegas sees this matchup: the Spartans are getting buried before kickoff.
DraftKings opened the Week 3 line with Notre Dame favored by more than the 27 combined points Michigan State laid against Eastern Michigan and Toledo to start the season. Michigan State is 1-0-1 against the spread so far, pushing as a 10-point favorite against Toledo in the opener before covering as a 17-point favorite against Eastern Michigan. But this is a different animal entirely.
This is the kind of spread usually reserved for a Group of Five team against a national title contender, or an FCS program walking into a Power Four matchup. It’s one of the most lopsided numbers Michigan State has seen in years, and the last five seasons have already been rough enough. The line says more about Notre Dame’s start than any deep indictment of the Spartans, though Vegas clearly isn’t treating Michigan State like a team with much of a shot in South Bend.
And Notre Dame has earned plenty of respect through two games. The Irish opened with a 41-13 win over Wisconsin and then rolled Rice 52-0.
On paper, that kind of start makes this kind of line easier to understand. Still, it feels steep.
What gives Michigan State a fighting chance to stay inside it is something the program has been missing for a while: an identity.
At the end of the Mel Tucker era and through the Jonathan Smith era, Michigan State looked like a team searching for itself. The culture in East Lansing was messy, and games against top opponents often felt decided before they started.
Under Fitzgerald, there’s at least a clearer picture. The Spartans have played with a hard-nosed edge - second quarter against Eastern Michigan aside - and they’ve committed to the run, piling up 258 rushing yards against the Eagles.
They also have a quarterback who can change things with his arm if needed, and with Michigan State likely playing from behind on Saturday, that part of the offense may come into play.
That doesn’t make this an upset pick. But it does make the Spartans more likely to hang around than the teams Tucker or Smith put on the field against elite competition. Michigan State should be able to do enough to stay within this huge number.
In Other News...
Tom Izzo May Have Just Moved Ahead For A Huge 2027 Target
Michigan State used a recent recruiting weekend to put two of its top 2027 targets in front of Tom Izzo and his staff, welcoming five-star point guard Antonio Pemberton and four-star center Jaydn Jenkins to campus. The timing mattered, too, with the Spartans continuing to lean into early evaluation and relationship-building as they try to position themselves well for a class that is still taking shape.
Now there is real momentum to monitor with Pemberton, the No. 23 overall prospect in the 2027 class. A report from Joe Tipton suggests Michigan State has emerged as the favorite for the top-25 recruit, a sign that the Spartans may have moved ahead in a recruitment that still has room to evolve. For a program that has long sold player development and trust, landing in front this early is the kind of progress Izzo wants to see. [Read more 🡒]
Brady Pretzlaff Just Took On A Bigger Michigan State Role
Michigan State is off to a 2-0 start in its first season under Pat Fitzgerald, and the latest win came with a familiar test for a defense trying to establish its identity early. In a 35-7 victory over Eastern Michigan at Spartan Stadium, the Spartans got another strong team showing, but the day also created room for a different voice to emerge when the defense needed one.
With Jordan Hall unavailable, redshirt sophomore Brady Pretzlaff handled a larger responsibility and spoke afterward about stepping into the moment, the standards Michigan State expects on defense and how much it means just to be back on the field. For a program still settling in under a new coach, that kind of growth matters almost as much as the scoreboard, especially when the next stretch will ask even more from the players now carrying the load. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan State Is Counting On Anton Bonke To Silence One Doubt
Michigan States interior picture is taking shape around Anton Bonke, the 7-foot-2 transfer from Charlotte who is expected to step in as the starting center after Carson Cooper. Tom Izzo has shown plenty of confidence in Bonke, and the Spartans are banking on the blend of size, development and continuity that has long been part of the programs identity. Bonke is also expected to help ease the transition for incoming freshman Ethan Taylor, which adds another layer to why his role matters so much early.
Still, there is a bit of outside skepticism attached to the assignment. College Basketball Report left Bonke off its Top 30 centers in college basketball, even as several Big Ten big men earned spots on the list, underscoring how much Michigan State is asking him to prove right away. For a program that tends to trust its own developmental track, Bonkes season will be about more than simply filling minutes in the middle. [Read more 🡒]