Michigan State’s season may not be decided in September or even in the rivalry game everyone circles first. The real turning point sits in the middle of the schedule, where the Spartans will have a string of games that are tough, but not impossible - and that stretch may tell us whether Year 1 of the Pat Fitzgerald era ends with a bowl trip or a long winter.
The baseline is simple: MSU needs to scrape together a few extra wins to make that happen. ESPN’s College Football Power Index lists the Spartans as favorites only three times this season, all at home against Toledo, Eastern Michigan and Northwestern.
Even so, it gives Michigan State a 32.7% shot at reaching six wins. That makes the upcoming run through the Big Ten especially important.
What happens before conference play may not reveal much. Beating MAC teams won’t move the needle much for a Big Ten program, and the Notre Dame trip in South Bend is the one nonconference game that should say something real about this team.
The Fighting Irish were ranked fifth in the preseason Coaches Poll, and Michigan State is expected to be the lesser team there. If the Spartans can hang around for a half or even three quarters, that would count as a positive.
For the optimists, Notre Dame has shown some early-season vulnerability under Marcus Freeman.
Once Big Ten play begins, the stakes sharpen fast. Michigan State is likely to enter conference play at 2-1, which means a 4-5 finish in league games would be enough to get to a bowl. The first five conference games are home against Nebraska, at Wisconsin, home for Illinois, home against Northwestern and then on the road at UCLA.
That’s the stretch that will define the season. None of those opponents is a sure thing, but all five are within reach.
Illinois is the toughest of the bunch according to Cleveland.com’s unofficial Big Ten preseason media poll, where the Fighting Illini were picked ninth. Nebraska was slotted 11th, Wisconsin 12th, UCLA 13th and Northwestern 14th.
Michigan State was 16th, so there are no layups here, but there’s also no reason to think the Spartans can’t win any of those games one by one.
The numbers back that up. In FPI terms, Michigan State has at least a 30% chance to win each game in that five-game run. The Spartans will be underdogs in some of them, but not by much.
And that’s where the schedule can swing either way. A solid showing against Notre Dame and a home win over Nebraska suddenly make Wisconsin look less daunting.
Beat Wisconsin, and Illinois starts to feel more manageable. The whole month can tilt in a hurry.
The other direction is just as real. Drop the first two Big Ten games to Nebraska and Wisconsin, and Michigan State is staring at a 2-3 record and a steep climb to bowl eligibility.
That’s why the target for that five-game stretch is 3-2. If MSU gets there, it would enter the final four games at 5-3 and need just one more win to get back to a bowl. A 2-3 run in that stretch could still leave the Spartans alive at 4-4 heading into November, but the margin for error would get tight fast.
And November does not offer much breathing room. The month opens with Michigan, the game most MSU fans think about first when they look at a season.
Michigan has won four straight in the series, and Fitzgerald appears to understand the weight of it. Still, a Year 1 win would be a surprise.
After that come Washington and Oregon, both at home, but both still major obstacles. Washington was ranked No. 19 in the preseason Coaches Poll, while Oregon sits at No. 2 and belongs in the title conversation.
If the Spartans are still searching for a lifeline by then, Rutgers at the end may be it. The Scarlet Knights were the only Big Ten team ranked below Michigan State in the preseason media poll, landing at 17th and just ahead of Purdue.
That’s why the middle of the schedule matters so much. Michigan State probably needs to bank wins before the calendar turns, because the last month looks far less forgiving.
In Other News...
Michigan State Suddenly Has A Shot At A Huge Recruiting Flip
Michigan State still has reason to stay engaged on Gideon Gash, even after the four-star cornerback verbally committed to Texas Tech. The Spartans have been in the mix throughout his recruitment, and Pat Fitzgerald is still pushing to keep that conversation alive as the staff looks for ways to strengthen the secondary with one of the more sought-after defensive backs in the class.
Gashs family ties make the situation especially notable for Michigan State, since he is the younger brother of current Spartans Samson Gash and Caleb Gash. He also drew serious interest from Alabama and Oklahoma along the way, so this was never a one-school decision, and the door appears to remain open just enough to keep the Spartans watching closely. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan State Just Made A Hire That Raises Expectations Fast
Michigan State has moved quickly to fill its athletic director opening, turning to Western Michigan AD Dan Bartholomae after J Batt departed for Kentucky. It is the kind of hire that immediately signals ambition, especially for a program looking to keep pace in a changing Big Ten landscape and wanting an administrator with a recent track record of building momentum.
Bartholomae leaves Western Michigan after a run marked by record fundraising and notable on-field success, including a MAC football championship and a national title in men's ice hockey. The financial part of the move is notable too, with Michigan State set to pay a buyout that will be largely offset by the money coming back from Kentucky for Batt, easing the cost of a transition that comes with heightened expectations from the start. [Read more 🡒]