Illinois heads into its matchup with Michigan State with a real chance to cash in on a defense that has been on the field far too long. The Spartans have had trouble getting stops, and that kind of wear and tear becomes a problem fast when an offense is capable of taking advantage.
That’s the angle here: Illinois’ team total over 23.5 points at -155. The number looks reachable because Michigan State’s defense has been forced to absorb too many snaps, while the Illini bring in a surging Luke Altmyer and an offense that can punish those breakdowns.
There are other betting angles worth a look in this game, too. The matchup has the feel of one that could produce points, which helps explain why Vegas has put out some fairly generous numbers. That opens the door to interest in several unders, including reception totals for Michigan State wide receivers, Spartans rushing totals and possibly even team totals.
Still, the bigger issue is on the defensive side for Michigan State. Illinois’ defense sits near the bottom of the country in several major statistical categories, but the Spartans haven’t been much better on that side either. With Michigan State’s offense struggling to consistently move the ball, the defense has been left on the field too long, and that’s a tough spot against an Illinois attack that should be able to exploit it.
The latest availability report is a little cleaner than last week’s, but one key name is still hanging over this game: Jordan Hall. He was doubtful last week and did not play, and his absence mattered. Michigan State gave up 31 points to Wisconsin, the second straight week an opponent reached that mark.
Now Hall is listed as questionable, so there’s at least a chance he returns. The Spartans will need every bit of help they can get if they want to spring a homecoming upset. Even then, though, it’s hard to feel confident that Michigan State can slow down Altmyer and Illinois enough to keep the Illini from clearing this number.
In Other News...
Michigan State Fans Had One Breaking Point With Officials Vs Illinois
Michigan States frustration with the officials reached a boiling point late in the game against Illinois, when freshman receiver Samson Gash appeared to come up with an onside kick recovery only for the play to be wiped away by an offsides call. The ruling set off a strong reaction from coach Pat Fitzgerald, who made his feelings clear on the sideline as the Spartans felt another key moment had gone against them.
The controversy only added to an already tense finish, and it loomed large when Michigan State later went to overtime. The Spartans had a chance to extend the game further, but a failed two-point conversion ended the night and left fans stewing over the sequence that helped turn the game in Illinois favor. [Read more 🡒]
Pat Fitzgerald Furious After Call Defined Michigan States Loss
Michigan States special-teams gamble briefly looked like the kind of momentum swing that can turn a tight college football game on its head. The Spartans appeared to recover an onside kick against Illinois, only for the play to be wiped away because of an offside penalty on freshman wide receiver Samson Gash, leaving the officials to sort through an extended review before upholding the flag and sending Michigan State back to re-kick.
For Pat Fitzgerald, the sequence became more than a lost chance. The head coach made it clear he disagreed with how the ruling was handled, and he intends to take his concerns to Big Ten officiating leadership. For a team already trying to find any edge in a close game, it was the kind of call that can linger long after the final whistle. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan States Overtime Collapse Exposed A Bigger Problem
Michigan States rally against Illinois had all the markings of a program trying to fight its way through a difficult stretch. Alessio Milivojevic settled in after a slow start and finished with 196 yards and two touchdowns, and the Spartans showed real grit by erasing a late deficit and forcing overtime after tying the game at 31-31.
But the 38-37 loss also put a harsher spotlight on a defense that never got comfortable. Michigan State did not record a sack or much meaningful pressure, and when the game came down to a pivotal two-point try, the Spartans could not finish the comeback. The effort was there, and the response mattered, but the broader issue is still hanging over this team. [Read more 🡒]