The 2026 Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy arrives this weekend, and Michigan State is still chasing its first Big Ten win of the year.
Michigan, meanwhile, is not in the hunt for a conference title or a College Football Playoff spot anymore, but it does have something to build on after beating Rutgers. The Wolverines are hoping that result can carry over into the final stretch of the season.
A big reason for that optimism is Tommy Carr. In his second start for Michigan, he went 22-of-27 for 266 yards and a touchdown, and he added 54 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.
He also kept the ball out of harm’s way, finishing without an interception. If that version of Carr sticks around, Michigan’s already strong defense makes the Wolverines a dangerous matchup down the stretch.
That defense is exactly why Michigan looks like the side to trust here. Michigan State has had trouble moving the ball with any real consistency, sitting 79th in adjusted EPA per play and 68th in success rate. Now the Spartans have to deal with a Michigan defense that has been one of the best in the country, including a fifth-place ranking in defense success rate.
The Spartans have held up well against the run, but this game still sets up poorly for them because of the matchup through the air. Michigan State is 99th in opponent EPA per pass and 79th in pass defense success rate, which gives Carr another clear path to another productive outing.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Michigan State Is One Win From The Final After Wild Finish
Bella Najera delivered the kind of finish that can define a tournament run, scoring in the 96th minute to lift Michigan State past Washington, 3-2, in a wild Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal. The Spartans had to navigate a back-and-forth match that featured multiple swings in momentum before Najera finally put it away, sending Michigan State into the semifinals with plenty of drama still fresh from the quarterfinal stage.
Michigan State now gets the matchup it was hoping to earn, a semifinal date with Michigan and a chance to keep its postseason push alive against a familiar rival. After surviving a tense, high-scoring battle against Washington, the Spartans will carry both confidence and urgency into the next round, knowing one more win would put them within reach of the final. [Read more 🡒]
Tom Izzo Still Sees A Michigan State Problem After Blowout Win
Michigan States 91-61 win over Toledo looked comfortable on the scoreboard, and Tom Izzo had reasons to like what he saw. The Spartans showed off the kind of depth that can carry a team through a long season, and Izzo has been working through roster adjustments as he tries to settle on the right combinations. For a team with bigger goals ahead, it was the sort of game that can reinforce the upside without fully answering every question.
Izzo still came away focused on the details that tend to matter most once the competition gets sharper. Free-throw shooting and turnovers remained issues in his eyes, even in a lopsided victory, and that leaves Michigan State with work to do before Duke arrives on the schedule. A win like this helps the record, but it also serves as a reminder that the Spartans are still chasing cleaner execution. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan State Enters Rivalry Game With One Huge Problem On Offense
Michigan State heads into the rivalry trip to Ann Arbor carrying more than the usual pressure that comes with this matchup. Both programs have labored through uneven seasons under new head coaches, but Michigan enters with a sturdier defense and a healthier roster, while the Spartans are trying to piece together enough on offense to keep pace in a game that still figures to be tight.
The bigger concern for Michigan State is the state of its quarterback situation, which has been unsettled by injuries and leaves the offense in a difficult spot against a Michigan defense that should control large stretches of the game. Michigans offense has shown some recent improvement, but the Wolverines are still expected to lean on their defense to separate in a rivalry that rarely gives either side much margin for error. [Read more 🡒]