Friday night’s showdown between Wisconsin and Michigan State has all the makings of a Big Ten classic - two teams surging at the right time, both coming off statement wins over Illinois, and each with something to prove as we head deeper into February. The No. 10 Spartans head to Madison to face a red-hot Badgers squad, and while this one could go either way, there are a few key edges working in Michigan State’s favor.
Let’s break down three areas where the Spartans might have the upper hand.
1. Jeremy Fears Jr. is the X-Factor
Wisconsin’s backcourt is no joke - they’ve got two high-level guards who can go toe-to-toe with just about anyone in the country. But Michigan State walks into this game with the best overall player on the floor: Jeremy Fears Jr.
Fears is playing like a man on a mission. He’s not just scoring - he’s bending defenses, drawing fouls, and forcing rotations.
Against Illinois, he showed exactly why he’s such a matchup nightmare. His ability to attack the lane puts constant pressure on defenders like Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, who are going to have their hands full trying to stay in front of him.
And here’s the thing - when Fears gets downhill, help-side defenders have no choice but to collapse. That opens up the perimeter, and Michigan State has shooters ready to make teams pay. Fears’ presence alone creates opportunities for everyone around him, and that kind of gravity is a massive advantage in a game like this.
He’s playing at an All-American level right now, and when you’ve got that kind of talent leading the charge, it gives you a real edge - especially in a hostile environment like the Kohl Center.
2. Owning the Glass
Rebounding isn’t always flashy, but it wins games - especially in the Big Ten. And this is an area where Michigan State has been consistently dominant.
The Spartans are pulling down over 41 boards per game, nearly five more than Wisconsin, who hover around the 37 mark. That gap may not sound huge, but over the course of 40 minutes, it adds up - especially when those extra possessions come off defensive stops or second-chance opportunities.
If Michigan State can force Wisconsin into tough shots - and that’s a big “if,” given how efficient the Badgers can be - the Spartans’ rebounding advantage could become a deciding factor. Limiting Wisconsin to one shot per possession while creating extra looks on the other end is a formula Tom Izzo has ridden to success for decades.
In a game where every possession matters, controlling the boards could tilt things in Michigan State’s favor.
3. Defense Wins - and the Spartans Play It Better
Wisconsin’s identity has shifted in recent years. Once known for their suffocating defense and methodical pace, the Badgers have leaned more into offense lately - and it’s worked.
They’re one of the better scoring teams in the Big Ten this season. But that offensive uptick has come with a trade-off.
Defensively, Wisconsin is giving up over 75 points per game. That’s a far cry from the stingy numbers we’ve come to expect from them. Meanwhile, Michigan State is allowing just 65.6 points per contest - a number that puts them among the elite defensive units in the nation.
Izzo’s teams are built on defensive fundamentals: closeouts, rotations, help-side communication - it’s all there. And in a game like this, where the margin for error is razor thin, that kind of discipline matters.
If Michigan State can stay connected on the perimeter and force Wisconsin into contested looks, their defense could be the difference. The Badgers can absolutely fill it up, but they haven’t faced many teams this season who can defend like the Spartans.
Bottom Line
This one’s shaping up to be a heavyweight battle between two teams that know each other well and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Wisconsin’s got the home crowd, a dangerous offense, and a backcourt that can take over a game. But Michigan State counters with a dominant rebound game, a defense that travels, and the best player on the floor in Jeremy Fears Jr.
Something’s got to give - and if the Spartans can capitalize on these three key edges, they just might walk out of Madison with a statement win.