The Big Ten hasn’t hung a national championship banner in men’s basketball since Michigan State did it back in 2000. That’s a long drought for a conference with this much tradition and talent.
But this season? Things are starting to feel different.
Really different.
According to the latest NCAA Tournament projections from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the Big Ten isn’t just in the mix - it’s front and center. Lunardi’s updated bracket has Michigan as a No. 1 seed, with Michigan State and Illinois both climbing to No. 2 seeds, and unbeaten Nebraska joining the party as well.
That’s four Big Ten teams among the top seven seeds in the field. And if that sounds like a potential turning point, it just might be.
Lunardi notes that the Big Ten has put more teams in the tournament than any other conference over the past five years - but the results haven’t matched the volume. Despite all those appearances, the conference hasn’t been able to break through when it matters most.
But this year? The top-end strength is undeniable.
There’s more than just depth - there’s firepower.
Michigan, sitting at 18-1 overall and 8-1 in conference play, is currently ranked No. 3 in the AP Top 25. Lunardi has the Wolverines leading the Midwest region and opening their tournament run in Buffalo, New York.
Their projected first-round matchup would be against the winner of a First Four game between Merrimack (Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference) and Vermont (America East Conference). That’s the kind of path a top seed wants - but it’s also the kind of path that comes with pressure.
And Michigan’s got no time to coast. They’re staring down a massive week with two statement games.
First up: a marquee showdown Tuesday night in Ann Arbor against Nebraska, who’s still undefeated at 20-0 and 9-0 in Big Ten play. That’s a top-five clash with major implications for both the conference race and the national picture.
Then on Friday, Michigan heads to East Lansing for a rivalry matchup with Michigan State - a team that’s quietly building serious momentum.
The Spartans, now 18-2 and 8-1 in the Big Ten, have won six straight and are starting to look like the kind of team nobody wants to see in March. They’ve moved up three spots to No. 7 in the AP poll and jumped to a No. 2 seed in Lunardi’s bracket.
He has them slotted in the West region, but interestingly, also opening in Buffalo - just like Michigan. Their projected opponent?
No. 15 seed Lipscomb, the expected Atlantic Sun champ.
That West region is no cakewalk, though. Arizona, currently the No. 1 overall seed in Lunardi’s bracket, headlines that group. But if Michigan State keeps trending the way they are, they’ll be more than ready for that kind of challenge.
Before they can think about March, though, the Spartans have a road test Tuesday night at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have struggled this season (9-11, 2-7 Big Ten), but no road game in this conference is a gimme.
Meanwhile, CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm has a slightly different read. He still has Michigan as a No. 1 seed - this time in the South region, opening against the winner of Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) and Howard (MEAC).
Michigan State, in Palm’s bracket, is a No. 3 seed in the West, with a first-round game against St. Thomas (Minnesota).
No matter how you slice it, the Big Ten is in position to make serious noise this March. The question isn’t whether the league will be well-represented - it’s whether this group can finally turn potential into a national title. With multiple teams looking like legitimate Final Four threats, the drought that started in 2000 might not last much longer.