Michigan State’s path to the College Football Playoff in 2026 is about as thin as it gets, at least if you go by ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Spartans are sitting at just a 0.8% chance to make the field, which leaves them near the bottom of the Big Ten pecking order for playoff odds.
That number fits the bigger picture around the program right now. Michigan State is in a rebuild, and the more grounded target this fall is simply getting back to a bowl game for the first time in five seasons. Most sportsbooks have the Spartans’ win total set at 4.5, which tells you everything you need to know about how the market sees this team.
Still, if you want to map out the kind of season that would have to unfold for Michigan State to crash the playoff conversation, the road is brutally narrow. The Spartans would need to take care of the games they’re expected to win - Toledo, Eastern Michigan and Northwestern - then survive the toss-up stretch against Nebraska, at Wisconsin, Illinois, at UCLA and at Rutgers.
And that still wouldn’t be enough. To get anywhere close to 10 wins and a legitimate playoff argument, Michigan State would also have to steal at least two of its four biggest underdog spots: at Notre Dame, at Michigan, Washington and Oregon.
That’s the math behind the 0.8% figure. It’s not impossible, but it would take a near-perfect run in a schedule that doesn’t leave much room for error. Among Big Ten teams, only Purdue is lower at 0.6%, while Rutgers and Minnesota are tied with the Spartans.
In Other News...
Where Spartan Stadium Stands In The Big Ten Stadium Pecking Order
Northwesterns new Ryan Field will soon reset the bottom of the Big Ten stadium scale, and it only sharpens the contrast across a conference where venue size still carries real bragging rights. Michigan Stadium remains the giant of the group at 107,601, a reminder of just how far the leagues biggest stage stretches from one end of the spectrum to the other.
For Michigan State, Spartan Stadium sits in the middle of that conversation rather than the top tier, checking in eighth in the Big Ten at 74,866. It is not the conferences biggest draw by capacity, but it still gives the Spartans one of the more substantial home environments in the league, especially when compared with the smaller end of the conferences footprint. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan States OL Fix May Hinge On One Transfer Addition
Michigan States offensive line is getting a major reset this fall, with four new starters expected up front after a season in which pass protection was a real problem. The most important addition may be UConn transfer Ben Murawski, who arrives after starting all 12 regular-season games last year and brings a reputation for steady work in the run game, the kind of profile the Spartans have been looking for as they try to stabilize the front.
Murawskis arrival also fits the broader direction of the offense, which is expected to lean more heavily on the ground game in 2026. With a deep running back group and a left tackle who has shown he can move people in the run game, Michigan State is clearly hoping the new-look line can do more than just survive, it needs to help change the identity of the offense and give the Spartans a better answer when the game tightens up. [Read more 🡒]
Tom Izzos 2027 Push Just Put Michigan State In The Mix
Michigan States 2027 recruiting work is starting to show up in a meaningful way, with Tom Izzo and his staff landing on finalist lists for several of the classs top names. Antonio Pemberton, a highly regarded point guard prospect, recently narrowed his recruitment to eight schools, and the Spartans are in the group along with programs like Ohio State, UCLA, Tennessee, Kansas, Creighton, Boston College and Marquette.
Pemberton is not the only one keeping Michigan State in the picture. Jaydn Jenkins, Jaxson Davis and Joshua Tyson have also included the Spartans among their final choices, a sign that Izzos recent push has resonated across multiple boards. The next step will be seeing which of those relationships can turn into something more concrete as the 2027 cycle keeps moving. [Read more 🡒]