Six weeks ago, Miami looked like a clear seller. Now the Marlins have turned the whole conversation on its head.
A walk-off win over Seattle last night gave them four straight victories and pushed them to eight games over .500 for the first time in three years. Since the start of June, they’ve gone 24-8, and that surge has put them two games ahead of the pack for the National League’s final Wild Card spot. They’re also just three games back in the NL East, which is a real climb even if Atlanta and Philadelphia still look like the class of the division.
The playoff numbers reflect that sudden shift. Baseball Reference has Miami at 58% to reach the postseason for the first time since 2023.
Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both have them a little above 40%. However you slice it, they’re no longer on the outside looking in.
That matters because the next month will help decide what Peter Bendix’s front office does at the deadline. Miami has a tricky run before August 3: two more games with the Mariners, then a home series against the Guardians to finish the first half. After the break, they head to Milwaukee and Houston, then come home for the Padres and Phillies before closing July with a four-game set in Queens against a Mets team that’s been reeling.
If the Marlins are still holding a playoff spot by the end of July, the expectation is that they’ll add. If the month goes sideways, they could stand pat or even make a modest sale. What doesn’t seem to be in play anymore is a full teardown.
Record: 50-42 (41% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
The biggest area of need is still the pitching staff, even though pitching has been the backbone of this rebuild. Miami already moved Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers and Edward Cabrera, with injury risk apparently a bigger concern than money. Then the system took more hits: Thomas White and Robby Snelling both went down, with Snelling done for the year after elbow surgery and White dealing with a shoulder sprain that makes a 2027 debut seem more likely than anything sooner.
At the top of the rotation, though, the Marlins have real answers. Max Meyer has broken out and is pitching like a front-line starter.
Sandy Alcantara isn’t in Cy Young territory anymore, but he’s still a well above-average arm and still gives Miami length like few pitchers can. Eury Pérez came back quickly from a gracilis strain and still has some of the nastiest stuff in the sport.
That’s a strong top three. The problem is everything behind it.
Tyler Phillips has been pushed from long relief into the rotation and has handled the job reasonably well, but his numbers as a starter - a 5.24 ERA and a 15% strikeout rate - point to a pitcher better suited to a swing role. Janson Junk is set to return tomorrow from shin inflammation, which gives Miami a full rotation on paper. But one more injury would send them right back to a depth option such as Ryan Gusto or Braxton Garrett, and the club clearly doesn’t trust Garrett despite his strong Triple-A work.
The workload issue at the top is just as important as the depth. Meyer has already reached 108 innings, and he’s never gone past 111 innings in a season at any level.
Last year, he got only 64 2/3 innings before season-ending hip surgery. Pérez’s track record is even more concerning: he has never thrown 100 innings in a professional season and is already at 79 2/3 this year.
Miami’s handling of Pérez on Sunday made that point plain. He was pulled during a perfect game bid after 92 pitches, with the team keeping one eye on the bigger picture.
“Us looking to play beyond the regular season, Eury’s going to be an important part of that,” manager Clayton McCullough said postgame (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). “He had it really going today, and I totally get it; and there was a part of my heartstrings pulling at his opportunity to keep on going, but I think I have to think about Eury, one, and our organization, our team, and what’s best moving forward to give us a chance to continue to win games. So, made more of a calculated decision with where he was with the pitch count to take him out.”
In Other News...
Marlins Just Made Their Wild Card Push Feel Very Real
A tense extra-inning win over Seattle gave the Marlins another reminder that this run is starting to look real. Miami outlasted the Mariners 6-5 at loanDepot park, a result that mattered not just because it came against an AL West leader, but because it kept the club moving in the right direction at a time when every game seems to carry a little more weight.
The Marlins are now 50-42, a mark that reflects how far they have come since the early part of the season and how much steadier this group has looked lately. They also snapped Seattles recent scoring momentum in a game that had enough back-and-forth to feel like the kind of late-summer test playoff hopefuls have to pass, even if the biggest moment of the night is still the one everyone will be talking about. [Read more 🡒]
Max Meyer Just Changed Everything For The Marlins Rotation
For years, Max Meyer looked like the kind of arm the Marlins hoped would anchor their future, even if the road kept getting interrupted. A top pick in 2020, he was slowed early by a UCL injury, then lost significant time in 2022 and 2023 before the setbacks kept coming with a demotion and a hip injury last season. Now, in 2026, he has put himself back at the center of Miamis plans with the kind of steady production the organization has been waiting to see.
Through 18 starts, Meyer has paired a 2.53 ERA with 112 strikeouts, and he has become the most reliable pitcher in a rotation that was supposed to be led by Sandy Alcantara and Eury Prez. The bigger question for the Marlins is no longer whether Meyer belongs in the mix, but how far his rise can carry a staff that suddenly looks very different from the one they envisioned not long ago. [Read more 🡒]