The Marlins’ offense is taking its hits at exactly the wrong time, and the trouble starts with two bats that were carrying so much of the load earlier in the year.
Otto has gone cold since the Midsummer Classic. In 128 plate appearances after the break, he’s hitting .222/.266/.265 and still hasn’t left the yard.
What stands out is that his approach hasn’t really shifted all that much. His walk rate has ticked up a bit, his strikeout rate has come down a lot, but the real problem is the damage.
His barrel rate has cratered from 7% in the first half to 2.8% now, and his hard-hit rate has dropped along with it.
He’s never been the kind of hitter who lives off long counts, so when the aggression increases and the contact quality falls off, there isn’t much margin left. A 54.3% ground-ball rate only makes the situation tougher.
Sure, he has speed, but not enough to turn grounders into a steady stream of hits. The Marlins need their top-of-the-order bat to wake back up.
A full repeat of his first-half production probably isn’t realistic, but getting close is still on the table.
Xavier Edwards hasn’t offered much help either. He was rolling early in the season and even flashed some power for a stretch, which gave the Marlins more than they expected from him offensively.
Since the break, though, his .239/.310/.265 line tells the story. It’s not pretty, and the 63 second-half wRC+ backs that up.
Since July 17, he’s been a negative for the lineup.
The Statcast numbers make the slump even clearer. Edwards has put 88 balls in play or recorded events in the second half without a single barrel after posting 14 in the first half.
He’s also been pounding too many pitches into the ground, and unlike his first-half version, he isn’t drawing walks either. That leaves the Marlins with two of their top four hitters not doing the one thing they need most: getting on base.
And that’s where the problem lands for Miami. Right now, the Marlins don’t have enough offense to cover for both of these first-half standouts going quiet at the same time.
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