The Marlins made a splash at No. 14 in last weekend’s MLB Draft, grabbing Jacob Lombard after what many around baseball saw as a stunning slide. When he was still on the board, Miami didn’t hesitate to take the Miami native, whose baseball roots run deep: his father is the bench coach of the Detroit Tigers, and his brother, George, is a top prospect in the Yankees system who was also drafted in the first round out of high school.
Lombard brings a lot to like on paper. He’s a 6-foot-3 shortstop with real power projection and smooth actions at a premium position.
The bat is where the debate starts. Baseball America puts a 45 on his hit tool on the 20-80 scale, pointing to his low contact rates against summer-circuit peers and a tendency to chase.
MLB.com is more bullish, giving him a 55 because of the way he creates damage when he does connect, with strong angles, a high fly-ball rate, hard contact and fast bat speed.
That mix of upside and uncertainty is why the comps stretch from useful regular to star-level ceiling.
If everything goes sideways and Lombard can’t hold down shortstop, Trevor Plouffe is the low-end outcome. Plouffe, also drafted as a shortstop out of high school, eventually moved to third base in Triple-A and carved out a nine-year major league career built around power. He finished with 106 home runs, a 4.2 peak bWAR and 7.4 career bWAR.
The middle lane points to Ian Desmond. Over 11 MLB seasons, Desmond piled up 181 home runs and 181 stolen bases, won three NL Silver Slugger awards at shortstop and posted a peak bWAR of 4.4 with a 15.8 career mark.
His offensive profile was always enticing, even if his OPS only cleared .800 once and strikeouts became a bigger problem later in his career. He stayed at shortstop for the Nationals until free agency despite the errors, though a player with Lombard’s talent could be moved along the defensive spectrum earlier in Miami.
Then there’s the dream scenario: Troy Tulowitzki. That’s the kind of ceiling that would mean everything comes together - glove, power and hit tool all clicking at once.
Tulowitzki played 13 seasons, reached a peak bWAR of 6.7 and finished with 44.8 career bWAR. Injuries kept his totals from climbing even higher, but the standard he set was obvious.
For Lombard, it would be an enormous outcome, and one that feels unlikely, but the raw ingredients are there.
By most evaluations, Lombard is one of the highest-upside picks the Marlins have made in recent years. The bloodlines are strong, the tools are real, and the organization should be looking at an everyday big leaguer at minimum.
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