Marlins Face A Series That Could Swing On One Big Edge

As predictions for the Marlins vs. Nationals series heat up, discover whos leading the pack and how you can join the action.

The Marlins and Nationals meet with both clubs carrying some clear statistical wrinkles into the series, and the pitching matchups are already mapped out for the first four games.

Miami is set to open with right-hander Eury Pérez against Washington lefty Jackson Kent on Friday. Saturday brings a righty-on-righty pairing, with Sandy Alcantara facing Cade Cavalli. The final two games are still listed as TBA for Miami, while the Nationals are scheduled to start Andrew Alvarez on Sunday and have Monday as TBA as well.

The numbers tell a mixed story for Miami. The Marlins come in ranked 14th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ and 11th with a 4.00 FIP. They’ve gone 5-5 over their last 10 games, and their road record sits at 26-39 this season.

Washington has been a stronger lineup on paper, checking in third in MLB with a 106 wRC+, but the run prevention hasn’t matched that production. The Nationals are 28th in MLB with a 4.76 FIP, and they’ve dropped seven of their last 10. At home, they’re 29-38 this season.

Both teams are also dealing with a lengthy injury list. Miami has Anthony Bender, Pete Fairbanks, Ronny Henriquez, William Kempner, Adam Mazur, Andrew Nardi, Robby Snelling and Kyle Stowers on the injured list. Washington’s list includes Connelly Early, Josiah Gray, DJ Herz, Richard Lovelady, Drew Millas, Mitchell Parker, PJ Poulin, Ken Waldichuk and James Wood.

For the Marlins prediction contest, a perfect series is worth three points: one for picking the series winner, one for nailing the exact wins total for both teams, and one for correctly identifying the Series MVP by FanGraphs WPA. FOF SuperSub David Fernandez is leading the 2026 season leaderboard for now, and submissions made before first pitch of the opener will count.

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The encouraging part for the Marlins is that the stuff is playing in more ways than one. His sweeper has been harder to square up, with a lower slugging percentage against it, and the in-zone whiff rate is sitting near 25 percent, which points to bats missing even when he comes into the strike zone. The walks are still a concern, even if they are trending better, but with Prez now lined up as the No. 2 starter behind Sandy Alcantara, the rotation suddenly has a little more hope baked into it. [Read more 🡒]