The College Football Playoff picture is starting to come into focus, and one of the biggest debates on the table right now centers around two 10-2 teams: the Miami Hurricanes and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Both have had strong seasons, both have compelling cases, and now it's up to the selection committee to make one of its toughest calls yet.
At the heart of the debate is how the committee chooses to weigh its criteria. Do they lean on the numbers-strength of schedule, strength of record, and the usual resume metrics-or do they trust the eye test and momentum heading into bowl season?
According to ESPN’s Greg McElroy, this decision could hinge on razor-thin margins. “Some of the metrics between Miami and Notre Dame are literally right next to each other,” McElroy said, pointing out that in terms of strength of record and strength of schedule, there’s barely daylight between the two. “Now you have to wonder if these teams will be in the same group the College Football Playoff chair has been telling us about.”
If they are, then head-to-head matters-and that’s where Miami holds a key advantage. The Hurricanes beat Notre Dame earlier this season, and in a debate this tight, that win could be the tiebreaker that tips the scale.
But it’s not just about one game. Miami’s body of work since a tough loss to SMU has been impressive.
Quarterback Carson Beck is hitting his stride at the right time, delivering what McElroy called “another surgical performance” in cold, windy conditions at Pitt. He was sharp, efficient, and mistake-free-everything you want from your QB in December football.
Then there’s Malachi Toney, who’s not just making noise as a freshman-he’s making a legitimate case as one of the best players in the country, period. Toney’s explosiveness, poise, and playmaking ability have been difference-makers all season long, and he’s elevated his game as the stakes have gotten higher.
Miami’s defense also picked the perfect time to deliver its best showing of the year. Against a solid Pitt team, the Hurricanes gave up just seven points and dominated the line of scrimmage. The front seven overwhelmed Pitt’s offensive line from the opening whistle, setting the tone and never letting up.
And let’s not overlook what Miami’s done while battling through adversity. Seven starters missed time throughout the season due to injuries.
That kind of attrition would derail most teams. Miami weathered it.
Yes, they dropped a couple games they probably shouldn’t have, but that’s not unique to them-and in past years, the committee has shown a willingness to consider context when evaluating losses. Will they do the same here?
Of course, Notre Dame isn’t just a placeholder in this conversation-they’re a powerhouse in their own right. McElroy made it clear: “I think Notre Dame is the real deal.
I also think Miami is the real deal.” And he’s right.
These are two teams loaded with NFL talent, capable of beating you in multiple ways-on the ground, through the air, and with quarterbacks who can take over a game.
Catch either one on the wrong day, and you’re in trouble.
So now, the committee has a choice to make. Miami has the head-to-head win, a strong finish to the season, and a team that’s peaking at the right time. Notre Dame has the pedigree, the consistency, and plenty of weapons of their own.
It’s a classic College Football Playoff dilemma-and no matter who gets the nod, the message is clear: both of these teams are built to compete with the best.