The Cotton Bowl matchup between Miami and Ohio State is shaping up to be a heavyweight clash, but the betting line has raised more than a few eyebrows. Ohio State enters as a 9.5-point favorite, a number that left former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray and ex-Clemson offensive lineman Eric Mac Lain genuinely surprised after watching both teams prepare.
“Ohio State is favored by nine and a half points… and I’m like, I’m a little bit shocked,” Murray said. “I think this is the most evenly matched game out there.”
Mac Lain didn’t hold back either: “I was shocked when that number came out. I would immediately hammer Miami with the points.”
And it’s not just about the spread - it’s about the talent on the field. This game is loaded with NFL-bound players.
As Mac Lain pointed out, eight of the top 25 prospects in the country will be on display. Big, strong, physical - both rosters are built like Sunday squads, and this one promises to be a grind-it-out battle in the trenches.
Miami’s Edge in the Trenches
That’s where Mac Lain sees a clear advantage for the Hurricanes.
“This is back-to-back dream games for Miami,” he said, referencing their physical win over Texas A&M and now this showdown with Ohio State. “Because the game can be won and lost in the trenches.”
And if you watched Miami’s offensive line work against Texas A&M, you saw it firsthand. Mac Lain highlighted how Miami neutralized Cashius Howell - A&M’s defensive lineman of the year - saying he was “put in a phone booth” and essentially erased from the game. That kind of dominance up front is rare, and Mac doesn’t see the same threat coming from Ohio State’s defensive front.
“That right side for Ohio State - they’re not good,” Mac said. “I would put Mesidor and Bain on the same side and I would bring zero (blitzers). You can get the ball out quick, but you’re getting tackled immediately.”
He didn’t stop there. Injuries have only made things tougher for the Buckeyes. With their right guard hurt and a backup left guard shifting over, Miami’s defensive line could be in for a feast.
“Both lines of scrimmage, Miami is the better team,” Mac said. “We’ve been preaching that all season.”
Debunking the ‘Miami Can’t Score’ Narrative
A lot of the national conversation has centered around whether Miami can generate enough offense. Murray pushed back hard on that.
“People are still like, ‘Oh, the offense can’t score,’” he said. “You don’t understand how tough that environment was at Kyle Field.”
He’s not wrong. Miami went into one of the most hostile environments in college football - 115,000 fans, 30 mph wind gusts - and found a way to win.
That’s not a stat-line game. That’s a gut-check win.
“They did what they needed to do on the road in bad conditions to win a football game,” Murray said. “And if they can’t score this week, I’m not going to say it’s because they can’t - I’m going to say it’s because Ohio State’s defense is that good.”
Mac Lain backed it up with numbers: “This is the second-best offense Ohio State has faced all year in points and total offense. The only one better was Indiana - and they lost.”
So, if you’re still clinging to the idea that Miami can’t move the ball, it might be time to update the narrative. That Texas A&M game? One-off conditions, not a reflection of who this offense really is.
Game Plan for Julian Sayin
Ohio State’s freshman phenom Julian Sayin will be under the spotlight, and Miami’s defense has a plan. Murray expects a disciplined, layered approach.
“They’re going to play a light box, two-high safeties, protect their corners until Ohio State proves they can run the football.”
That strategy only works if your front four can hold their own - and Miami’s can.
“They’re trusting those front four to handle the run, and they have. All season,” Mac said.
The goal? Take away the deep ball, especially to standout wideout Jeremiah Smith.
“You have to go two-high because they’re going to take shots, especially with Jeremiah Smith,” Mac added.
Murray compared it to his own experience throwing to A.J. Green - sometimes defenses just decide one guy won’t beat them.
“Sometimes teams just say, ‘He’s not beating us. Throw it to someone else.’ That’s what Miami’s going to do with Jeremiah Smith.”
Of course, Sayin’s no one-trick pony. As Murray noted, “They’ve got Carnell Tate too. Julian Sayin is smart enough to know when and when not to force it.”
Final Predictions: Leaning Miami
Despite Ohio State’s pedigree and talent, both Murray and Mac Lain are siding with the Hurricanes.
“I’m going to lean on the fact that you have an experienced quarterback in Carson Beck,” Murray said. “I trust the trenches with Miami. I think Miami wins another low-scoring game, maybe 20-7.”
Mac Lain sees it a little tighter: “I’ve got 24-21 in favor of the Canes.”
For both analysts, it comes down to the same thing - line of scrimmage dominance.
“When you can dominate the line of scrimmage, you control the game,” Mac said. “And Miami can do that.”
So while the betting line may favor the Buckeyes, the battle-tested eyes of two former players see this one going the other way. If Miami brings the same physicality and trench play we’ve seen all season, don’t be surprised if the Hurricanes walk out of the Cotton Bowl with more than just a cover - they might just walk out with the win.