Miami’s path through the regular season looks friendly on paper, at least if you trust ESPN’s updated Football Power Index.
After week two, the Hurricanes sit No. 5 in the FPI rankings, right behind Georgia, which moved up to No. 4 after its 70-20 rout of Western Kentucky. Miami held steady in the top five after hammering FAMU 77-7 on Thursday night, and the current top five reads: Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Georgia and Miami.
ESPN defines the FPI this way: "The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."
In other words, it’s a projection model built to sort out who’s most likely to win over the long haul. And when it comes to Miami, the model likes what it sees.
FPI projects the Hurricanes as an 11-1 team in 2026, with a 17.7 percent shot at finishing undefeated. Miami also gets a 79.3 percent chance to reach the College Football Playoff, the third-best mark in the country and one that trails only Texas and Notre Dame. The Hurricanes’ chance to win the national title comes in at 8.6 percent.
The weekly game-by-game numbers show why the model is so bullish. Miami is favored in every remaining regular-season game except one:
- 9/18 @ Wake Forest (2-0): 91.7% win probability
- 9/26 vs. Central Michigan (1-1): 99.0% win probability
- 10/3 @ Clemson (1-1): 90.0% win probability
- 10/17 vs. Florida State (1-1): 93.4% win probability
- 10/24 vs. Pittsburgh (2-0): 89.1% win probability
- 10/31 @ North Carolina (2-0): 89.0% win probability
- 11/7 @ Notre Dame (2-0): 34.9% win probability
- 11/14 vs. Duke (2-0): 93.5% win probability
- 11/21 vs. Virginia Tech (2-0): 90.4% win probability
- 11/28 vs. Boston College (1-1): 98.3% win probability
That leaves Miami with the 46th toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to FPI. The lone real obstacle is the November trip to Notre Dame, the only opponent on the schedule ranked inside the top 25. The Irish check in at No. 3 overall and are listed at No. 11 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency through the first two weeks.
The next toughest opponent for Miami is Pittsburgh at No. 29 overall. The Panthers opened with a 59-14 win over Miami of Ohio, then edged UCF 12-7 in week two. FPI notes quarterback Mason Heintschel as a key part of Pittsburgh’s explosive potential.
Virginia Tech sits at No. 31 overall as James Franklin lays the foundation of the identity he wants to establish during his first season in Blacksburg. The Hokies beat Old Dominion 44-21 in week two.
Florida State is next at No. 37 overall and is set to face Alabama in Tuscaloosa this week. Duke is the biggest mover among Miami’s remaining opponents, landing at No. 40 after a 31-27 win at Illinois in week two.
In Other News...
Miami Is About To Face Its First Real Test Up Front
Miamis offense is about to find out a lot more about itself. After two games of easing into the season, Shannon Dawson and Mario Cristobal are focused on a step up in class next week, when the Hurricanes run into a Wake Forest defensive front that has already shown it can make life uncomfortable.
For Miami, the spotlight is squarely on the offensive line and the kind of communication that tends to get tested most when the opponent can win up front without needing much help. Cristobal and Dawson both pointed to Wake Forests early-season defensive work as a reminder that this wont be another dress rehearsal, and the Hurricanes will need cleaner timing and sharper coordination to handle a much tougher assignment. [Read more 🡒]
Miami Is Still In The Fight For A Massive 5-Star Target
Mark Matthews remains one of the biggest name recruits Miami is still chasing in the 2027 cycle, and the Hurricanes are not backing off despite his pledge to Texas A&M. The five-star offensive lineman from St. Thomas Aquinas has stayed in contact with Miami, and the staff continues to treat him as a priority target as it looks to keep stacking talent up front.
Matthews has shown appreciation for the Hurricanes' effort and the family atmosphere around the program, which at least keeps the door open as Miami pushes to strengthen its offensive line haul. With a highly ranked 2027 class already taking shape, landing a player of Matthews' caliber would be a major add, even if he has not suggested any change to his commitment yet. [Read more 🡒]
Miami Faces An Early Test That Could Change Everything
Miamis early-season path gets a quick reality check Friday night when the Hurricanes head to Wake Forest, a road stop that comes with more weight than the calendar might suggest. Around college football, Oregon is trying to steady itself after a loss to Oklahoma State and Houston is staring at No. 13 Texas Tech in Lubbock, so Miamis matchup fits into a busy night that could start shaping how teams are viewed before the schedule really settles in.
For the Hurricanes, this is the kind of game that can sharpen the conversation around where they stand and how far they have to go. Road games always bring a different level of scrutiny, and with standings and perception both still in flux, Miami has a chance to make an early statement while the season is still young and the margin for error is thin. [Read more 🡒]