Miami’s Momentum Meets a Major Test: Can the Hurricanes Knock Off UNC?
The Jai Lucas era in Coral Gables is still in its early stages, but Year 1 is already showing signs of a program on the rise. Sure, there have been a few bumps in the road-January losses to Clemson, Florida State, and a surprising home stumble against Cal-but the bigger picture tells a much more encouraging story. Miami is miles ahead of where it was a year ago, and now, with a marquee matchup looming, the Hurricanes have a chance to pick up the kind of signature win that can reshape their NCAA Tournament outlook.
That opportunity comes Tuesday night, when No. 11 North Carolina rolls into town. According to ESPN’s analytics, Miami has more than just a puncher’s chance-they’re actually favored to pull off the upset.
UNC’s Ranking vs. Reality
The Tar Heels are coming off one of the most dramatic wins of the season: a 71-68 comeback thriller over No. 4 Duke in Chapel Hill.
It was UNC’s fifth straight win, a stretch that’s helped vault them to the No. 11 spot in the latest AP Poll. Hubert Davis’s squad looks like it’s peaking at the right time, shaking off a midseason slump and playing with renewed urgency.
But while the AP voters are high on Carolina, the advanced metrics are a little more skeptical. KenPom slots UNC at No. 27 nationally-well behind their AP ranking and just a few ticks ahead of teams like Utah State and Saint Louis. That’s despite a strong 19-4 record, albeit one that includes head-scratching losses to Michigan State, SMU, Stanford, and Cal.
The Tar Heels still have the talent to beat anyone on any given night. Freshman phenom Caleb Wilson was electric in the first half against Duke, hitting tough shots from all over the floor.
Then it was Seth Trimble who played the hero, burying a game-winning three at the buzzer. And with Henri Veesaar and Wilson anchoring the paint, Carolina has the kind of rim protection that can frustrate even the most efficient offenses.
But as good as UNC can be, they’re not invincible-and Miami is catching them at an interesting time.
Hurricanes Trending Up
Miami sits at No. 43 in KenPom, just 16 spots behind the Tar Heels. That gap isn’t as wide as the rankings might suggest, and it reflects just how competitive Lucas’s squad has been this season. With a current record of 18-5, the Hurricanes are quietly building a case for themselves-and Tuesday night could be the moment everything clicks.
Transfers Malik Reneau and Tre Donaldson have been key to the turnaround, bringing toughness, experience, and playmaking to a roster that needed a jolt. But the real X-factor might be freshman wing Shelton Henderson.
Lucas, who built a reputation as a top-tier recruiter during his time at Duke under Jon Scheyer, landed Henderson as one of his first major gets. And while Henderson hasn’t generated the same national buzz as fellow freshmen like Caleb Wilson, Cameron Boozer, or Darryn Peterson, he’s starting to find his rhythm at just the right time.
In Saturday’s win over Boston College, Henderson dropped 19 points on an ultra-efficient 8-of-11 shooting. That followed a 16-point outing in the loss to Cal, where he went 7-of-11 from the field. Those back-to-back performances suggest that Henderson’s confidence-and shot-is coming together in ACC play.
Tuesday Night: A Defining Moment
If Henderson continues to shoot the ball like this, and if Reneau and Donaldson can control the tempo, Miami has a real shot to take down UNC. The Hurricanes are defending better, scoring more efficiently, and playing with the kind of edge that suggests they’re not just happy to be in the mix-they’re ready to make some noise.
This is more than just a regular-season game. It’s a measuring stick, a résumé-builder, and a potential turning point for a program that’s trying to re-establish itself in the ACC hierarchy.
Tuesday night in Coral Gables? It’s not just another conference matchup. It’s a chance for Miami to show the college basketball world that Jai Lucas has something special brewing-and that the Hurricanes are ready for the spotlight.