Happy Monday, errrrrrrrrrrrrrbody. Hope your weeks have gotten off to a great start.
I’m on vacation back in the Sunshine State, and man, how much I deeply miss living in this wonderful, wonderful place. With that being said, and being in the dead period with a lot of free time to work with, I decided to look ahead at some aspects of the upcoming season, and that includes the Heisman Trophy odds.
Let’s get into that now.
The starting quarterback at Miami, Darian Mensah, is sitting in a very attractive spot in the Heisman market. He’s at +1100 on FanDuel Sportsbook, which is third best, and +1200 on DraftKings Sportsbook, where he’s tied for fourth with Ohio State QB Julian Sayin. That’s a strong signal from the books.
It also says plenty about the kind of season people expect from the Duke transfer in Shannon Dawson’s offense. Mensah would have been one of the most sought-after quarterbacks in the portal if he’d entered when the Sam Leavitt and Ty Simpson pursuits were happening for LSU and other programs chasing a headline QB.
And there’s a reason for that. Manny Diaz leaned on him heavily last season, and Mensah answered with 3974 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, and six picks.
Now he walks into a Miami offense with two receivers who can change games in Malachi Toney and Cooper Barkate, both of whom followed him to Coral Gables. Dawson has already shown he can get the most out of a quarterback and the rest of the offensive pieces around him over the last two years.
Miami’s 2024 attack with Cam Ward was an aerial force that still managed to sneak in some balance. Last year, the Hurricanes were more of a blunt-force offense.
The expectation is that 2026 will look a lot like 2024, only with a defense that actually shows up. Miami should again have multiple top-tier pass catchers, just like it did then. If things break the right way, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mensah pushing some of Cam Ward’s school records.
And if that happens, the Hurricanes will be scoring in bunches, winning a lot of games, and Mensah will be right there in the Heisman conversation, with a ticket to New York City in play. At +1200, those odds are worth a look.
But there’s another Miami name that jumps out even more to me.
Malachi Toney’s Heisman odds are sitting at +3500 at FanDuel and +3800 at DraftKings, and that payoff at 38-to-1 is appealing. The award usually comes with those signature moments that define a season, and Toney gave college football plenty of them last year.
With Barkate lining up opposite him, defenses won’t be able to focus on Toney the way they could to some extent a year ago. Miami will still want to run the ball, too.
Even so, Toney should have plenty of chances to make his mark. He’ll take snaps, throw the ball, return punts, and catch short passes that function like part of the run game. In other words, he’s going to get every kind of opportunity to show off what makes him different.
At that price, I’d be willing to take a small swing and see if the payoff comes through.
In Other News...
Cam Ward Is Already Shaping Miamis Five-Star Quarterback Future
Israel Abrams has spent much of the offseason in the middle of the national quarterback conversation, and the Miami commit keeps adding to that rsum. The five-star from Montini Catholic High School has already gone through high-profile competitions this summer, including the Elite 11 finals, and he is now turning toward his senior season with plenty of attention on how far his game can go before he arrives in Coral Gables.
What makes the latest stop stand out for Hurricanes fans is the company Abrams kept at an Overtime and Under Armour passing camp, where former Miami quarterback Cam Ward was among the voices working with him. Social media clips from the event showed interviews with Abrams and Ward, another reminder that Miamis quarterback pipeline is already being shaped by the kind of players the program hopes to keep attracting, even before Abrams plays a down for the Hurricanes. [Read more 🡒]
Miami Still Has One Pressing Tight End Question Behind Elija Lofton
Elija Lofton gives Miami a proven veteran at tight end, but the room behind him is still sorting itself out as the Hurricanes head toward the new season. Four-star newcomers Gavin Mueller and Israel Briggs arrive with real pass-catching credentials from big high school careers, giving the position group a more talented look than it had a year ago and adding some intrigue to how the depth chart will settle.
The bigger question is how quickly either freshman can earn trust in the parts of the job that do not show up in highlight clips. Miami also brought in Mike Viti as the new tight ends coach, a hire that brings a strong reputation from his time at Army and should matter in a room where technique and physicality will decide snaps. Mueller and Briggs can both run routes, but their path to playing time will hinge on how well they handle the blocking side of the position. [Read more 🡒]
Miamis Loaded Backfield Is Forcing A Huge Decision Before Stanford
Miamis running back room is suddenly one of the most interesting position battles on the roster, and it could shape how the Hurricanes look when Stanford comes to town. Jordan Lyle, Mark Fletcher Jr., CharMar Brown and Girard Pringle Jr. all bring something different to the table, which is exactly why the staff has a real decision to sort through before the opener.
Lyle was supposed to be the lead option a year ago, while Fletcher gave Miami the sturdier, more physical presence it needed during the College Football Playoff run. Brown adds another layer to the mix, and Pringle has stayed in the conversation as a player the Canes want involved. The result is a backfield with no shortage of options, but also no clear answer yet on how the workload should be divided. [Read more 🡒]