The Miami Hurricanes get a Saturday night spot for the first time this season when they host Central Michigan on September 26 at 6:30 p.m. on CW. Miami is 3-0, Central Michigan is 2-1, and the numbers point hard toward a lopsided night: ESPN gives the Hurricanes a 99% win expectancy, with Miami installed as roughly 42-point favorites.
By the SP+ lens, the gap is just as wide. Bill Connelly’s rankings have Miami seventh nationally overall, with the Hurricanes sitting ninth on offense, seventh on defense and 41st in kicking.
Central Michigan checks in 117th overall, including 129th on offense, 91st on defense and 99th in the kicking game. Miami has already worked through opponents ranked 101st, 280th, 63rd and 117th by SP+.
The biggest statistical mismatch lives on the scoreboard. Miami is 19th in FBS at 39 points per game, while Central Michigan is 117th at 15.5.
The Hurricanes are also 16th in scoring defense, allowing 13 points per game. The Chips are 53rd, giving up 24.
The situational numbers lean Miami too. The Hurricanes are converting 54% on third down, good for 15th in FBS, while Central Michigan is at 29%, which ranks 116th. On defense, Miami is holding opponents to a 33% third-down conversion rate, while the Chips are allowing drives to stay alive 50% of the time on third down.
One wrinkle: Central Michigan has been aggressive on fourth down. The Chips are 26th nationally at 83% on fourth-down tries, and Miami has yet to attempt a fourth-down conversion this season. That means the Hurricanes need to be ready for a team willing to keep the ball in its hands instead of punting it away.
Turnovers and penalties are basically even in the broader picture. Miami is 87th in turnover margin per game at minus-0.5, while Central Michigan is 57th at 0.0. The Hurricanes are averaging 62.5 penalty yards per game, and the Chips are at 62, so the officials may not be working overtime if those trends hold.
The film study centers on Central Michigan’s 24-10 win over Wyoming in Week Three. The Chips built a 17-point first-half lead, finished 8-of-16 on money downs and went a perfect 3-for-3 on fourth down.
Wyoming was 7-of-15 on money downs. Central Michigan also won the turnover battle 2-0, and both teams were flagged for 40 yards.
Quarterback Angel Flores is the engine of the CMU offense, but the tape says he’s much more dangerous as a runner than a passer. Against Wyoming, he averaged just 4.6 yards per pass attempt and connected with only four different receivers.
On the ground, though, he averaged 5.8 yards per carry and scored twice. The backs behind him averaged 6.8, 3.7 and 20.5 yards per carry, and Brock Townsend ripped a 38-yard touchdown run.
The Chippewas’ offensive line kept Flores clean, allowing no sacks and only two tackles for loss.
Central Michigan leaned into designed quarterback runs and option looks, and Flores kept finding room. The offense also showed enough willingness to attack on the edges and use play-action concepts to stay ahead of the chains. Against a Miami front that needs a cleaner showing in tackling, the read is straightforward: the Hurricanes have to control the line of scrimmage and not let Flores turn this into a grind.
The CMU defense had its moments against Wyoming, holding quarterback Tyler Hughes to 5.8 yards per pass attempt while picking him off twice. Hughes completed passes to six different receivers, with two of them averaging double-digit yards per catch.
But the same film also shows where Miami should be able to stress the Chips. Wyoming backs averaged 4.2 yards per carry, and Hughes himself ran for 7.8 per attempt.
Central Michigan didn’t record a sack and had just one tackle for loss, though it did force six pass breakups.
That sets up the main storyline for Miami: this should be a game where the Hurricanes can lean on their size and depth. The key points are simple.
Flores has to be the focus, because he leads Central Michigan in both passing yards and rushing yards. Miami needs a clean night from the offensive line, especially with the expectation that the Chips won’t bring much of a pass-rush threat.
And the Hurricanes need to get more receivers involved so they can sort out who the No. 2 option is behind Malachi Toney.
There’s also a chance for Miami to keep expanding the passing game. Lofton and Mueller have opportunities to earn more work, and the Hurricanes should be able to create space for Darian Mensah to get the ball to more than just the screen game. The matchup points in one direction: Miami should have the talent, the size and the depth to handle Central Michigan if it plays clean.
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