ESPN’s latest FPI release has Miami sitting inside the top 10, but the Hurricanes’ spot in the rankings is only part of the story.
The Hurricanes come in at No. 7 overall, one slot behind Indiana. Ahead of Miami are Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon and Georgia, while Alabama, LSU and Texas Tech fill out the rest of the top 10.
On paper, it looks like another strong preseason nod for Miami. In reality, it’s just one more set of numbers in a sport that won’t be decided by projections.
The bigger takeaway comes when the rankings shift from broad reputation to projected wins. That’s where Miami jumps even higher.
In that category, the Hurricanes are No. 3 at 10.4 projected wins, behind Texas Tech at 10.8 and Notre Dame at 10.7. Ohio State and Oregon are tied at 10.2.
That split says a lot about how these models work. The FPI leans heavily on returning production, and the top of the list makes sense through that lens.
Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon and Georgia all have returning quarterbacks, and most of them also bring back key pieces around them. Miami, meanwhile, is dealing with the kind of uncertainty that can tilt a preseason metric.
A transfer quarterback in Darian Mensah is expected to be a better fit for the offense than Carson Beck, but that still counts as a change. The defense has a couple of unproven players expected to take on bigger roles, too, and replacing first-round NFL draft picks is never a simple swap.
That’s why the FPI is best viewed as a starting point, not a verdict. It can help frame the preseason conversation, but it can’t tell you what will actually happen once the games begin. And once they do, the only number that really matters is wins - the kind earned on the field, not projected by a formula.
There’s also reason to be skeptical of some of the teams near the top. Texas Tech, for instance, is sitting at No. 1 in projected wins at 10.8, but that kind of placement raises obvious questions about whether it can hold once the season starts.
The same caution applies across the board. Miami fans can take the No. 7 ranking as a sign that the Hurricanes are being viewed as one of the better teams in the country, but the more meaningful number is the one that shows up in the standings after the games are played.
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