Miami walks into its biggest regular-season test with a profile that looks almost split in two. On one side is the nation’s top offense. On the other is a pass defense that keeps sliding the wrong way.
The offense has been dominant by just about every measure that matters. Miami is first in scoring at 43.4 points per game, which puts it at No. 1 in the country for the second time in three years. It also ranks third in yards per play at 7.0, fifth in total offense at 489 yards per game, and second on third down by converting 55.29 percent of the time.
The passing game has been just as dangerous. Miami is third in yards per pass at 9.7 and sixth in passing yards at 319 per game, giving the offense the kind of vertical punch people keep asking for. Protection has held up better than expected, too, with the Hurricanes 25th in sack percentage allowed at 4.17 percent.
There are a couple of places where the numbers are more modest, but still encouraging. Miami ranks 34th in yards per carry at 4.7, a big jump from where it sat at this point last year. It is also first in avoiding tackles for loss and third in fewest giveaways, which helps explain why the rushing average isn’t even higher.
The defense tells a different story.
Miami is first against the run, giving up just 64.1 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. That part of the unit is carrying real weight. The problem is everything that happens when opponents decide to throw.
The Hurricanes are 95th on third down, allowing conversions on 42.11 percent of those snaps. They’re 84th in yards per pass allowed at 7.6, and that number has dropped every week.
They’re also 128th in passing yards allowed at 277.9 per game, a reflection of how often teams are choosing to attack through the air. Miami is 44th in yards per play allowed at 5.2 and 34th in total defense at 342 yards per game, while sitting 25th in scoring defense at 19.3 points allowed per game.
There are some signs of life in the pressure game. Miami is 30th in sack percentage at 7.89 percent and 32nd in takeaways at 1.4 per game. But the pass defense numbers are still worse than the 2024 Cam Ward year, even though the overall defense is better because of the run defense and the red zone.
That’s where the focus turns heading into Notre Dame. Ahmmon zeroed in on third down, calling it the snap where everything gets decided.
He said the defense needs to get that number from 42 percent to 30, because that would give Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney one or two more possessions a game. With this offense, that could be the difference.
He also pointed to Damon Wilson II and the challenge Notre Dame will bring with chips, rollouts and quick throws. The comparison was to how teams neutralized Bain and Mesidor at this point last year. The answer, in his view, is disguise: show a middle linebacker blitz, get off tendencies and force the quarterback to hold the ball a beat longer.
On the other side, Ahmmon pushed back on the critics who want more deep shots from Dawson. His view is that Dawson is a calculated risk-taker whose offense is built on reads, and the ball goes where the defense tells it to go. Until someone stops it, he isn’t going to complain.
Notre Dame’s situation adds another layer. The line reportedly moved from 3.5 to 5.5 after the UNC game, which lines up with how Miami’s pass defense looked.
The Irish have their own issues, including reported injury trouble for DT Francis Brewu and problems in the back seven. Navy also moved the ball on them for a half without throwing.
CJ Carr is the best quarterback Miami has seen not named Mensah, and the veteran quarterbacks have already had success against the Hurricanes this season. If Miami can get enough third-down stops to create extra possessions for its offense, it can win. If not, the setup points to a shootout in South Bend.
In Other News...
Notre Dame Suddenly Hands Miami A Huge Opening In South Bend
Notre Dames injury report ahead of its matchup with Miami gives the Hurricanes a little more reason to believe they can walk into South Bend and make things uncomfortable. The Irish are dealing with a cluster of absences on both sides of the ball, including defensive tackle Francis Brewu, who is questionable with a left knee injury, and captain linebacker Drayk Bowen, who has already been ruled out with a right ankle injury. Add in the loss of multiple other defensive linemen and a pair of offensive linemen, and the depth chart suddenly looks a lot thinner than it did a few days ago.
For Miami, the timing matters. Any trip to Notre Dame Stadium is a major test, but the Hurricanes now have a clearer path to attacking a front that may not be at full strength and a defense missing one of its most important leaders. The full picture still depends on how Notre Dames questionable players respond closer to kickoff, but the opening is real, and Miami will know it has a chance to press an Irish team that is already shorthanded in some critical spots. [Read more 🡒]
Miami Faces Its Toughest Test Yet With Everything On The Line
The stage could hardly be bigger for Miami, which heads to South Bend on Nov. 7 with the No. 1 ranking and a matchup against No. 4 Notre Dame that carries the feel of a season-defining November night. It is the kind of game that brings the rivalrys history back into focus, while also putting the spotlight on the players who have driven both teams into the national championship conversation.
For the Hurricanes, Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney will be central to whatever they do offensively, and Notre Dame has its own answer in quarterback CJ Carr. With both teams arriving highly ranked and playing with plenty on the line, this one has the ingredients of a playoff-caliber measuring stick, even before a single snap is taken in South Bend. [Read more 🡒]
Elija Lofton Is Giving Miami A New Reason To Feel Dangerous
Elija Lofton has quietly become one of the more interesting pieces in Miamis offense over the last six games, and the junior tight ends expanded role has started to show up in the kind of moments that matter. Against UNC, he caught three passes for 48 yards and helped keep a key drive alive with a 12-yard grab that extended the lead, a sequence that fit the growing sense that Miami has found another reliable option in the passing game.
Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson singled out Loftons work on that scoring drive, a sign that the Hurricanes are beginning to trust him in bigger spots. For an offense looking to keep defenses honest, having a tight end who can step into a pivotal role changes the picture a little, and Loftons recent usage suggests Miami may have found another matchup problem to lean on as the season moves forward. [Read more 🡒]